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THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2 -- DAY 36 ($100k Guaranteed P6)

Enormous payout of $377k on Saratoga double carryover certainly was earned by the 4 successful tickets which included the Twin Spires Players' Pool group. Sequence proved as tricky as it seemed with only one favorite coming through (Peat Bay in the opening leg 5th) ahead of winners from all over the board at mutuels of $8.60, $10.60, $9.70, $21.40 and $16.80. None were utterly impossible, though 7-1 Slick Wheelie in the nightcap had been away an eternity which featured stem cell replacement therapy on an injury suspensory! My opinion wasn't close on the multis, but I managed one sizable hit in the P. G. Johnson where 'Best Value' second choice Fancy Point became a universal good thing bet down to 7-2, and zipped home in front of the other three tabs for a $700 tri abnd $2,800 super. Hope you did OK!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/C, 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lead Us Not 5-2
Best Value: #8 Riddle 5-1
Next Best: #1e Fisher entry 6-1


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Ward entry 7-2
Best Value: #7 All for Peace 10-1
Next Best: #5 Wildcat Stevie 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Trippi's Tiger 6-1


3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Wall of Worry 3-1
Next Best: #6 Healthy Debate 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Sudden Silver 5-1
Super Add: #1 Lorraine in Spain 8-1


4th: Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 House of Grace 5-1
Best Value: #6 In Te Domine 8-1
Next Best: #2 Senada 4-1
Super Add: #9 Snow Top Mountain 7-2


5th: MSW-NY, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$100k Guaranteed P6 Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Aptphilly 5-2
Best Value: #8 Adriatic Pearls 20-1
Next Best: #4 No Angel 20-1
Super Add: #3 English Ivy 6-1


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-7
3: 3-6-7
4: 2-3-6-9
5: 4-5-8

2x3x4x3 = $72


6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sweet Tune 4-1
Best Value: #3 Dyani 5-1
Next Best: #7 Muhaawara 4-1
Super Add: #2 Emerald Beach 8-1


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Watch board for clues on how live #4 Modest is..

Most Likely #9 Technique 6-1
Best Value: #5 Plainview 15-1
Next Best: #4 Modest 3-1
Super Add: #1 It's Truly Ahvee 5-1


8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Platinumplus 8-5
Best Value: #5 Shehashighhopes 6-1
Next Best: #7 No Rhyme Or Reason 6-1
Super Add: #1 Lovely Promise 6-1


9th: Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Queen of the Creek 5-1
Best Value: #6 Doe Run 8-1
Next Best: #8 Kittylicious 15-1
Exotics Use: #3 Ultimate Class 20-1


10th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Theresmyeverything 2-1
Best Value: #1 Mazara Del Vallo 8-1
Next Best: #2 Freud's Debut 8-1
Super Add: #11 Haya's Boy 15-1


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 5-8
6: 3-4-7
7: 1-4-5-9
8: 3-5
9: 7
10: 1-3

2x3x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-9
8: 3-5
9: 6-7
10: 1-2-3

4x2x2x3 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

GUS ALONSO'S THURSDAY ACTION

Arlington Park - $24k Place Pick 9 Carryover


R6 – Starter Alw 5k (Turf 5F)

#9 Party of Eight – Looking to make it a party of eight wins in a row.
#4 Monkey’s Moonbeam
#5 Reason to Wink
#8 Saville Hotel

R7 – Clm 7.5k N2L

#6 Party King – Does the party continue?
#2 Historian
#11 Magic Bullet
#9 Vinqtieme

R8 – Clm 25k N3L (Turf 8F)

#3 Chartreux
#1 Surely Irish
#7 She’sfitforaking
#2 Happy Henrietta

R9 – ILB MSW 29k

#2 Granite City
#1 Mish Mosh
#4 Franklin County
#6 Reggiville


$1 Place Pick 9 – 2 3 / 5 7 8 / 7 / 1 / 1 3 7 / 9 / 6 / 1 3 / 1 2 = $72

PK4 – 9 / 1 2 3 6 7 9 11 / 1 3 / 1 2 3 4 6 = $ 70


Good Racing Luck

RESULTS 9/1

ElectricityElectricity 'brownout' here in Greenwich has made for a difficult morning, so limited comments other than to say P6 double carry of nearly $500,000 demands your attention! Thoughts below. Changes after 12p. ATR preview starting at 9a!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Some nice horseflesh scrambling for $12.5k..

Best Value: #2 Great Crusade 10-1 8th
Next Best: #1a Surfing Ian 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Ramsgate 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Super Add: #5 King Andrew 7-2 2nd


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Ready and Good 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Blessed Moon 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Mama Got Even 4-1 3rd


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

SCR of #5 Fantasma = No Super..

Most Likely: #7 Deceive 4-1: Progressed when stretched on lawn.. 4th
Best Value: #6 Sing My Song 12-1: Taking hint from WO poly try.. 3rd
Next Best: #2 Flourish 2-1 WON ($4.60)


4th: OC/C, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Could easily slap an overnight stake title on this seasoned crew that has seen the circle 42 times collectively (135 starts) for nearly $5,000,000 simoleans..

Best Value: #4 Discreet Treasure 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Cool Coal Man 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Regal Ransom 2-1 WON ($3.60)


5th: (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$443k P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Difficult sextet sequence commences with tricky Maiden Claimer that asks blind without cane types to gain diploma going 1 mile on the inner turf. In a race like this, your first question is 'Who cannot win?', and after 30-1 Mountain Moonshine, there aren't obvious answers. Yes, a couple seem far more likely to succeed in this spot, but a more surprising winner shouldn't shock anyone..

Most Likely: #5 Peat Bay 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #3 Naughty You 7-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Arrr Pirates Booty 3-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Speciale Giorno 15-1 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1
3: 2-6-7
4: 3-4-5-6
5: 1-3-5-9

1x3x4x4 = $48


6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Run to Grand Ave. 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Fairway Tom 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Talk to Nick 4-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Dance Floor Maniac 4-1 4th


7th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Precious Metal 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Really Belong 6-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Igoturback 10-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Power Dreams 7-2 WON ($10.60)


8th: P.G. Johnson-NY, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Pleine Forme 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Fancy Point 12-1 WON ($9.70)
Next Best: #6 Lauren Byrd 7-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Kathmanblu 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-7) Paid $69.50
$1 Trifecta (4-7-2) Paid $347.00
$1 Superfecta (4-7-2-6) Paid $1,419.00


9th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Just what you want in a tough sequence, turf sprint with literally any possible..

Most Likely: #3 Sly 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Kingsdale Ocean 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Rocketing Returns 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Straight Romance 15-1 9th


10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Stream of Gold 3-1
Best Value: #8 Hurricane Heat 20-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Cinder Cone 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Sharps Island 8-1 3rd


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-5
6: 3-5
7: 6
8: 2-4-6-7
9: 1-3-9
10: 1-8

2x2x1x4x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-10
8: 2-4-6
9: 1-3-9
10: 1-2-3-8

2x3x3x4 = $72

RESULTS 8/30

I cannot adequately express the emotions associated with Sunday's victory by Dee Tee Stables' Ausable Chasm in Saratoga's 2nd race. As a fan of the game since the 80's, being closely involved with a horse winning under the circumstances presented yesterday has left me overwhelmed. There are so many levels on which the day resonated... We have as a Stable won 5 other races that have fulfilled dreams for those that wanted to be a part of this magical sport in some way. But witnessing the unfettered joy of the Dee Tee partners, their family and friends as the special pleasure of a Saratoga win unfolded for them, will be a source of pride and satisfaction for me forever. To have my father on hand for the day was a principal personal element of the event's warmth, and being the outfit that served as the source of Gary Sciacca's first meet win was another.

Thanks to Gary, his staff, Chuck Simon, Dee Tee partners that have been part of our 8 horses and all of the 900+ Derby Trailers from which everything we've done springs. I was congratulated many times and many ways for the result Sunday, but virtually everyone offering them is as responsible for this most humble of racing operations and its' charmed existence as me.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


$100,800 P6 CARRYOVER


1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Custers Last Stand 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Rotten to the Core 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Insightful 3-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Delta Thunder 6-1 WON ($11.60)


2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #6 Grand Terror 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Scotchirish 4-1 3rd


3rd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Best Value: #4 Bandit Lady 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 SCR
Super Add: #6 Salty Little Sis 4-1 WON ($4.40)

SCR Add: #7 She's Got Rules 4-1 2nd


4th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 In Just We Trust 9-2 2nd-DH
Next Best: #6 Harmonizer 4-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Fastus Cactus 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Spring Elusion 5-1 7th


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$101k P6 carryover starts here..

Most Likely: #10 SCR
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #4 Yan Yan 10-1 WON ($10.60)
Super Add: #8 Truth Will Tell 8-1 2nd

SCR Add: #1 Miss Vindictive 10-1 5th


<$72 P4 Play:

2: 1-3/SCR-6
3: 4-6-7
4: 3-4-5-6
5: 4-8

3(1)x3x4x2 = $24


6th: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Total Package 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Sunrise Smarty 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Avenging Spirit 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Inspired 7-2 7th


7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Chantilly G. 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Keith's Kitten 3-1 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #9 Terevaka 10-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Clap Hands 5-1 5th


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Vital Argument 12-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Mustang Island 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Strong Impact 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Goodandacceptable 15-1 2nd


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Masala 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 National Pride 3-1 WON ($7.70)
Next Best: #6 Glenwood Canyon 5-2 2nd


10th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Bobity Boo 7-2 7th
Best Value: #6 Loyal Shadow 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Sextant 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 We Need V L T's 5-1 WON ($15.20)


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-8
6: 6-7
7: 3-6
8: 2-9-10
9: 1
10: 3-6

3x2x2x3x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-9
8: 2-9-10
9: 1
10: 1-2-3-5-6-11

4x3x1x6 = $72

RESULTS 8/29

Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets you. Sometimes in the same day. It was a down/up afternoon Travers Day Saturday at Saratoga, coming out the other side on a high after wandering around blind without a cane for the first two thirds of the program. An exotics sweep in the King's Bishop, bonus mutuel in the hair-raising feature, and slightly foolhardy P4 play all helped me rally from bankroll death's door... In the Travers, I got lucky obviously as that photo was as tight as could be, but franklly, I feel like I got one back after the excruciating Mambo in Seattle loss 2 years ago. The payoff wasn't as hefty as I was looking for with the style of the structure ($422.50), and it probably doesn't justify the the gambit's moderate probability for success, but there's no reason to give it back!

More than anything, Travers Day was a testimony for staying on despite early losses. I was get slaughtered through the 8th race before starting to find the range when Rapport logically took the Victory Ride. It would have been nice to get any bigger price on the P4 tick with the 'all' button Ballerina, and perhaps Warbling could have reeled in Rightly So on a fairer track. And similarly, Bank Merger ($9.70) seemed to have dead aim on Discreetly Mine ($1.05) in the King's Bishop, but could not make up the length or so margin in the latest stages. When Latigo Shore ($44.70) and Hurricane Ike ($7.30) rounded out the $138 tri and $563 super in the the G1 test for sophs, I at least started to take the edge of the pounding I was taken up to that point.

Travers generated another thrilling and unforgettable stretch duel in its' 141st edition, the third such breath-taker in the last four runnings as Afleet Express and Fly Down battled gamely for 200 yards. And to say Jimmy Jerkens was a popular training winner may be the season's greatest understatement. The taciturn son of a legend had through the previous year experienced client setbacks that would have crippled many a conditioner. The loss of Ned Evans and the Moores as owners drained more than 20 horses from Jerkens' shedrow, and winning a race like the Travers has to come as welcome affirmation for a man who doesn't let many people get to know him.

It was a remarkably beautiful day at the Old Spa, and the 45,000+ that were on hand had to have had as good a time as a racetrack is capable of offering. Another 30,000 have a similar opportunity today, and being part of the Personal Ensign card with Ausable Chasm in the 2nd race only further enhances the day's festivities for Dee Tee partners, familiy and friends.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Beautician 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #6 Cinco de Mayo Mio 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Devils Humor 5-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Zermatt 7-2 4th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Ausable Chasm 6-1 WON ($22.20)
Next Best: #4 Lady Vi 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Millie Money 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #1 Affable Athena 6-1 7th

$1 Exacta $43.25
$1 Trifecta $58.75


3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bound by Humor 5-2 4th
Best Value: #6 What's the Record 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Flying Zee entry 3-1 2nd/6th
Super Add: #3 Dream Drop Kid 7-2 3rd


4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Blushing Dixie 8-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #8 Deputy's Citizen 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Aphrodite's Tears 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Proven Right 8-1 7th


5th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Bakhoor 9-2 4th
Next Best: #2 De Price 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Launceston 6-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4
3: 1-2-6
4: 1-3-6-8
5: 2-5

3x3x4x2 = $72


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Trippo 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Devonshire 15-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Zapster 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Wildlee Special 12-1 10th


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD,Super)

Best Value: #7 Sound Chaser 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Recharged 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Henceforth 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 SCR


8th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Irish Lady 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Considerate 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Notell 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Ready for Autumn 12-1 4th


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Missinglisalewis 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Piazza Di Spagna 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Leipzig 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Bigshot 7-2 4th


10th: 63rd Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 10f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rachel Alexandra 2-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Miss Singhsix 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Life at Ten 5-2 3rd


11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Implied Odds 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Papaw Bodie 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Dark Cove 12-1 WON ($20.80)
Super Add: #6 Empire State 4-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-8
9: 4-5-8
10: 1-2-4
11: 1-5-6-10

2x3x3x4 = $72

RESULTS 8/28

This is obviously a Saturday that needs little added fanfare from my keyboard. The coastal Racing Offices at Saratoga and Del Mar have authored outstanding Travers and Pacific Classic Day cards to kick off this big weekend, and horseplayers should relish the deep and challenging opportunities that abound as a result. Both meets wind down after these two days, so enjoy the great racing as we start the turn into the fall season...

Best of luck to everybody today!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Aspire 3-1: Loved strip as juvy.. 9th
Best Value: #1 Six Clicks 6-1: Stalk and go candidate.. 6th
Next Best: #9 Maximus Ruler 7-2: Possible lone speed on return.. 8th
Super Add: #10 Cocolero 4-1: Reunites with debut win pilot.. 9th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-5-7-9-10 with 1-3-5-7-9-10 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Missyoulikecrazy 6-1: Full sis to Pretty Prolific (#6 Ballerina).. 3rd
Next Best: #6 Blazing Along 5-2: One the well meant Baffert trio today.. 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Malibu Cougar 5-1: Problematic trip in sloppy day bow.. 8th
Super Add: #4 With the Current 6-1: Swam upstream with Malibu Cougar.. 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 6-7-8 with 6-7-8 with 2-4-5-6-7-8 with 2-4-5-6-7-8 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Nolangrant'skitten 6-1: Better tote than beatable fave Forum.. 7th
Next Best: #10 Volker 6-1: Bred to enjoy move to sod, routes.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Tingaleo 10-1: Ward 2/6 stretching 2yo's in grass bow.. 10th
Super Add: #11 Peb Hughes 8-1: Half to Cherokee Artist shopped for spot.. 8th


4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As has been the theme all meet, these state bred turf routes have been furtive opportunities for scores, and betting The Noz at 3-1 isn't the method by which you capitalize with about 8 or 9 here possible for honors..

Best Value: #9 Joey's Chance 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Barrel of Love 10-1 3rd-DH
Exotics Use: #11 Dos Hombres 8-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Thunder Chief 8-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 9 with 3-11 with 1-3-4-5-6-11 with All (1x2x6x9 = 108 x .10 = $10.80)


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Free Entry 6-1: SW sib Thunders Dove was sharp 2yo.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Northern Hammer 15-1: Working well under radar; Tote bonus.. 10th
Next Best: #3 Uncle Mo 3-1: Repole/Pletcher.. Yawn.. WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #1 Research Report 4-1: Debut outfit but tough post.. 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7
3: 4-5-10
4: 3-9-11
5: 1-3-4-7

2x3x3x4 = $72


6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Another opportunity to swing for the fences..

Best Value: #2 Neversaywhen 12-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Fourseventeen 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Chingachgook 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #7 Felice Di Notte 15-1 7th


7th: OC/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating near marathon on the Mellon Course with many 'usual suspects' for this kind of event (Mott, Clement, et al..), and many other enticing price candidates..

Best Value: #2 Insider Tip 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 More Than Willing 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 En Fuego 5-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Rescue Squad 8-1 6th


8th: 22nd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

No Phola or Maram for me, thanks; Far too many more eligible missys at better prices in here..

Most Likely: #8 Cherokee Queen 6-1: Leparoux back after botched MTH start.. 9th
Best Value: #2 Danzon 20-1: What's not to like at that number? 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Keller 7-2: Picture of consistency.. 3rd
Super Add: #10 Meking Melody 6-1: Came back a different mare at 5.. 10th


<$100 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-4-7
6: 2-5
7: 2-4-9-11
8: 1-2-8

4x2x3x4 = $96


9th: 8th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Beyondallboudarys 4-1: Shows steady growth under Amoss.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Rapport 3-1: Speed of the speed? Garcia owns both her wins.. WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #4 Sister Dawn 6-1: Ready to explode forward in first dirt try? 7th
Super Add: #9 Katy Now 7-2: Cuts back while reuniting with Velazquez.. 4th


10th: 32nd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Warbling 4-1: Compromised chances in HonMiss start.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pretty Prolific 12-1: 2nd start with McPeek who doffs hood (31%).. 7th
Next Best: #1 Rightly So 6-1: Seriously speedy T. Dutrow/Zayat guns from rails.. WON ($11.40)
Super Add: #8 First Passage 15-1: Problematic in/out type has punchers' chance.. 5th


11th: 26th King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Hard to believe that Discreetly Mine's enormous Amsterdam effort won't cause a regression here. May still have enough to best rivals, but worth taking slight cautionary position against..

Best Value: #6 Bank Merger 8-1: Spotted field lengths and rallied.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Discreetly Mine 6-5: Respect, but don't fear.. WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Hurricane Ike 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Latigo Shore 20-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-6) Paid $14.90
$1 Trifecta (4-6-1) Paid $138.00
$1 Superfecta (4-6-1-2) Paid $563.50


12th: 141st Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD, Travers-Per. Ensign Double, Super)

Cannot recall a Travers more compelling from standpoint of openess. Plethora of options and mutuels to choose from when constructing plays, and no inclusion or exclusion would be questioned. Appears an honest pace will develop at the least, and runners inclined for mid-pack/stalk and finish trips make the most sense to me. Afleet Express, Friend or Foe and Trappe Shot flashed most upside of late-developing sophs, and are the core of my approach here with the Jerkens trainee most likely to run biggest race..

Most Likely: #7 AFLEET EXPRESS 6-1 WON ($16.00)
Best Value: #9 Friend or Foe 15-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Trappe Shot 4-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Fly Down 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 7 with 2-3-8-9-10 with 2-3-8-9-10 with ALL (1x5x4x8 = 160 x .10 = $16.00)


<$100 P4 Play:

9: 3-4-7-9
10: All
11: 2-4-6
12: 7

4x8x3x1 = $96 $1 Pick 4 (3-1-4-7) Paid $422.50


13th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Pretty Cozzy 9-2 WON ($8.90)
Best Value: #9 Moonlight Beauty 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Max's Runner 4-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Ben's Boots 9-2 3rd

GUS ALONSO'S BIG SATURDAY ACTION

Nearly a $68k carryover for the pre-Travers Day card at the Spa after the odd couple of McGaughey and Aquillino scored 11-1 and 9-1 victories in the 9th and 7th respectively. Other than those two upsets, it was a numbingly chalky afternoon... Without wanting to rush things along too much, I do have to say that everything this week has seemed like a dull prequel to what lies ahead Saturday and Sunday here at Saratoga. And with Dee Tee's Ausable Chasm now signed on as part of the Personal Ensign undercard (2nd race), the weekend can't get here soon enough. The P6 is approached below, and it's part of a fun card that has several quirky twists. Hope you did OK Thursday and are ready for a tremendous weekend of racing including The Travers Day festivities, Rachel & Life at Ten, Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar, Juvenile Showcase at Calder and more!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Charles Dowd-NY, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Driven by Success 1-1: Couldn't get lead in last..
Best Value: #1 Groomedforvictory 4-1: Cozy stalking trip under Ramon..
Exotics Use: #2 Uncle T Seven 5-1
Super Add: #4 SCR


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very good 7/8ths ALW for Empire missys..

Most Likely: #7 Roderick 5-2
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #3 One Turn Eddie 3-1
Super Add: #6 SCR

SCR Add: #1 Reading Group 4-1


3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Pawleys Porch 5-2
Best Value: #3 Grand Strategy 5-1
Next Best: #5 Megaholtz 3-1
Super Add: #7 Deadly Catch 6-1


4th: 2nd Pleasant Colony, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Our Dark Knight 8-5
Next Best: #1 Trickmeister 7-5
Best Value: #4 Regal Warrior 10-1


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$67,800 P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Best Value: #9 Erma Lee 5-1: Had eventful trip in bow..
Next Best: #6 Tiz My Time 9-5: Tried Ascot Grp 3 and did OK..
Exotics Use: #3 Queen Mars 15-1: Maker effective in lawn route debuts..
Super Add: #8 Holidaysatthefarm 8-1


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-7
3: 3-5-6
4: 1-2-3-4
5: 6-9

3x3x4x2 = $72


6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Challenging dozen..

Best Value: #11 Mr. Madison 8-1
Next Best: #2 Tall Poppi 9-2
Exotics Use: #8 Billy Bear 7-2
Super Add: #5 Stealth Missle 5-1


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Simply an eye-crossing assembly of equally talented turf routers that happen to starter eligible. Every entrant has recent ITM finishes that put them within reach of the winner's circle here. In addition, there is a perfect set of running styles signed on to ensure an honestly run race. Search for karma angles, include prices and spread in multis. No opinion will be silly here..

Best Value: #6 Versailles Road 12-1
Next Best: #7 Upgrade 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 Too Big Too Fail 15-1
Super Add: #9 Targhee Pass 8-1


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Oh super.. A turf sprint! And perfectly placed to destroy actual handicapping and multi-race wagering strategy!

Best Value: #3 Follia 8-1
Next Best: #1 Counterspy 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Conflicted 10-1
Super Add: #9 Tudor King 8-1


9th: Bernard Baruch (G2), 3+, 9f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 BALETTI 5-1
Next Best: #5 Get Stormy 9-5
Exotics Use: #6 Rogue Victory 12-1
Super Add: #8 Raddical Sabbatical 8-1


10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Brampton 3-1
Best Value: #2 Bronzed 6-1
Next Best: #5 Holy Place 4-1
Super Add: #6 Elleway 10-1


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 6-9
6: 2-5-8-11
7: 1-6-7
8: 1-3
9: 1
10: 2-4

2x4x3x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-6-7
8: 1-3-4-7-9
9: 1
10: 2-4-5-6-11

3x5x1x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

RESULTS 8/26

Overall a wash Wednesday with lots of good outcomes including first P4 ($167.50) and late P3 ($107.50), but I wasn't close on the carryover (2/6). Almost feel like Wednesday/Thursday is treading water for the great racing upcoming. Hope you did well! Running late today, so here's the view of this afternoon which includes the guaranteed $100k P6 pool...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY Turf Writers Cup H. (NSA-G1), 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

SCR #2 Dark Equation..

Most Likely: #1e Sheppard entry 2-1 WON/4th ($4.30)
Best Value: #3 Seer 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Virginia Minstrel 6-1 6th


2nd: CLM, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Super will cancel with SCR of El Real Madrid..

Most Likely: #5 Chris Got Even 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Mizzen's Wake 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Stargleam 4-1 3rd


3rd: High Rock Springs-NY, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Freuds Ana Streak 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Never Right Joey 7-5 WON ($2.50)


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Ravingaboutkitten 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Thunder Jewel 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Exotics Use: #10 Hessonite 6-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Blond Halo 6-1 7th


5th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, Super)

Best Value: #2 Eliza Grace 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Hear Her Roar 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Glance My Way 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Mardi Belle 6-1 WON ($6.00)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 5-7
3: 2-3-5
4: 3-9
5: 1-2-6

2x3x2x3 = 36 x $2 = $72


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Playa Bonita 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Next Best: #7 Exiled Princess 5-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Judicial Leader 6-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Sphynx Key 12-1 5th


7th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Electra's Ego 3-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Awakened Beauty 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fee On Legs 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Hennessy Light 8-1 4th


8th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Unique Citizen 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Princess Maura 3-1 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #4 Cover Story 4-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Holy Moment 6-1 7th


9th: MSW, 3+, 9.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Macedonian 3-1 8th
Best Value:#3 Grand Gift 12-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Antrim Shield 7-2 5th
Super Add: #11 Grand Pride 15-1 11th


<$150 'Guaranteed $100k Pool' P6 Play:

4: 3-9
5: 1-2-6
6: 7-9
7: 2-6-7
8: 1-5
9: 2

2x3x2x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-7-9
7: 2-6-7
8: 1-4-5
9: 2-3

4x3x3x2 = $72

RESULTS 8/25

Biggest week of Saratoga season begins with a juicy double carryover of $210k produced from wet track confusion of Sunday and Monday. The P6 sequence is quite difficult of course, with 3 maiden events sprinkled within, and some uncertainty present over the condition of turf courses likely to be good to yielding. Travers-Personal Ensign Week/Weekend should be delightful with clear weather forecasted into next week, and the racing promising to be just as outstanding. Racing office will draw later this morning for the full field Travers and stakes-laden undercard associated with it. It should be a great week.. In addition to the Saratoga P6 today, there is the terrific Eight Thirty at DelPark (8th-4:24pm ET), and the Harry Brubaker at Del Mar (7th-5:00 PT)...

Hope Hope you were able to hear the Tuesday ATR with a remarkable 2 hour conversation amongst broadcasting legend Tommy Roberts, training icon Leon 'Blu' Blusiewicz and famed horse developer Kip Elser. Visit the ARCHIVE if you missed it. I know you'll enjoy it.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Top pair better than the rest, and anticipate cat and mouse games between them all the way around..

Most Likely: #1 Remark 9-5 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #2 Arena Elvira 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Super Espresso 5-1 3rd


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Early P4, and card overall, has tricky stamped all over it with 2yo stake and 4 maiden events including this..

Most Likely: #5 Cheeky Mama 5-2: Rice runner had eventful debut; The one to beat.. WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #2 Status Pending 4-1: Doubt 4-1 holds on $200k Dutrow-IEAH Tale/Cat debuter.. 2nd
Super Add: #7 Riona 10-1: Cesare juvys outrun their odds regularly at Spa.. 7th


3rd: Ann Clare-NY, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Penn National import Rosa Salvaje may end up providing value if Chad Brown fave gets hammered as expected. $13k Chapel Royal miss couldn't have been an easier winner in bow, and earned a fig even with the $165k Klaravich debut winner. Note that none of Rosa Salvaje's four foes won or ran with the early lead, and it's not hard to envision the Lisa Lewis trainee speed-popping this heat..

Best Value: #2 Rosa Salvaje 5-2: Swiped & promoted by Schettine after impressing at PEN.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Yawkey Way 6-5: Brown churning out wins; Expect odds-on tote.. WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Queens Harbor 6-1: Expect improvement from professional MCLM winner.. 3rd


4th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 8.5f OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$210k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Yes This Is It 4th
Next Best: #5 Kid Curry WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Dax 2nd


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Very intriguing race with a couple of prices involved that will be overlooked..

Best Value: #6 Slammin Lou 20-1: Equalled best off break; Can stun with improvement.. 5th
Most Likely: #2 Tidal Slam 3-1: Likely, but Rice stretchout doesn't have to win.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Gamblin Fever 12-1: Not happy with struggling pilot, but ready for good effort.. 2nd
Super Add: #1 Lunar Puzzle 7-2: Hard to avoid; Saves ground.. 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 5
3: 2-3-4-5
4: 1-3-5
5: 1-2-4-5-6-7

1x4x3x6 = $72 $1 P4 (1/5-4-5-4) Paid $167.50


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Odd group of light or unraced babies; Indecipherable jump up candidates possible as prime trainers involved with firsters (Mott, Harty, etc.) have poor stats under these conditions..

Most Likely: #3 Orangeblackandgold 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Drummette 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Blueveau 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Pretty Tune 15-1 8th


7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Yet another turf route that is an outstanding wagering affair. These events have been the key to the meet's bankroll..

Best Value: #1 Veiled Prophet 20-1: Insane tote on consistent 5yo; Note subtle jock upgrade.. 6th
Next Best: #10 Moon Town 3-1: Best of bunch, but away awhile and must work out trip.. 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Pleasant Strike 6-1 WON ($22.00)
Super Add: #4 Dubai Rainbow 6-1 9th


8th: The Albany-NY, 3yo, 9f (DD)

Not much intrigue to this finale of the Big Apple Triple. The fact that Flying Zee doesn't have Shrewd One in here, taken from Pat Kelly in favor of Pat Biancone and run unsuccessfully in a Monmouth ALW days ago, is ridiculous..

Most Likely: #1 Ibboyee 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Stormy's Majesty 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #5 Johanesburg Smile 5-1 3rd


9th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Too Clever by Half 9-2: Should appreciate stretchout.. 7th
Next Best: #6 Harlan's Ruby 7-2: Improved markedly turf routing.. WON ($)
Exotics Use: #11 Mayday Maria 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Praviana 8-1 5th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-5
5: 1-2-6-7
6: 2-3
7: 1-10
8: 1-2
9: 1

3x4x2x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3
7: 1-4-6-10
8: 1-2
9: 1-6-11

3x4x3x2 = $72

RESULTS 8/23

Sunday at the Spa turned into a brutal afternoon with the racetrack swamped and the patrons soaked despite being handed umbrellas withtheir admission. More likely (70%) Monday with all races already off the turf. A $47k carryover greets the sloppy conditions, but the good news is that by Thursday we will have a beautiful stretch of weather leading to and through Travers and Personal Ensign Weekend!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Bernie's Pal 4-1 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #12 Catchapenny K 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Spirit of Rose 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Luna Charm 8-1 5th


2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e Pletcher entry 5-2 WON/3rd ($4.20)
Next Best: #11 Sea of Liquidity 9-5 2nd


3rd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Shaker Lakes 5-2 7th
Next Best: #4 Karen's Joy 3-1 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #5 Forever Tango 9-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Alwaysinmydreams 5-1 3rd


4th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Starts $47k P6 Carryover..

Most Likely: #8 Wicked Diva 5-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Cody Samora 7-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #7 Two Moons 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Big Brownie 8-1 2nd


5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Stormin Bolt 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Fenway Faithful 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 That's Rich 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Vose the Host 9-2 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-11
3: 2-4
4: 8-11
5: 1-2-3-5-6-7

2x2x2x6 = $48


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Dana's Bell 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Rock Hall Honey 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Sugar Trade 10-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #10 Sorority Sister 4-1 3rd


7th: 7th Union Avenue-NY, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

SCR #3 R Betty Graybull who ran at MTH Sunday..

Most Likely: #1 La Concerto 3-1 5th
Next Best: #7 City Broad 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Meese Rocks 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #5 Gold for the Queen 7-2 3rd


8th: Bennington, 3yo-F, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Aegean 8-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Malibu Moon Dance 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Ready to Sing 6-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Hilda's Passion 5-1 WON ($8.80)


9th: CLM, 3+, 9f (Super)

Best Value: #5 Clear Faith 5-1
Next Best: #7 El Real Madrid 3-1 WON ($5.70)
Exotics Use: #1 Stopbluffing 4-1
Super Add: #2 Reflect Times 10-1


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 8-11
5: 1
6: 6-9-11
7: 1-7
8: 2-3-5
9: 5-7

2x1x3x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-9-11
7: 1-7
8: 2-3-5
9: 1-2-5-7

3x2x3x4 = $72

All around poor afternoon with little production upon which to positively reflect. The racing highlight of the Spa day was certainly the feature, which turned into a showcase for the undeniable 3yo filly division leader Blind Luck, ultra-professional moving to the lead late against a slow pace and winning by a long neck over Tony Dutrow's Havre de Grace. Wagering disappointments aside, the lowlight of the day was the bafflingly empty performance authored by Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez with favorite Devil May Care. The Pletcher filly underwent the same race dynamic restrictions that Quality Road did in the Whitney, 'rated to death' through fractions of :49.2, 1:14.4 and 1:39.1. And just as Quality Road had no excelerating punch on which to rely in the late stages, Devil May Care was absent of any of the kick she had displayed annexing the the CCA Oaks, Mother Goose and Bonnie Miss.

The win by Blind Luck, who now has three G1 wins on the year (Alabama, KY Oaks, Las Virgennes), distinctively places her atop the soph gal standings. In dismissing Devil May Care, Blind Luck also helped create a clear runner up in the Eclipse competition as her closest persuer is now Evening Jewel who won the G1 Del Mar Oaks later in the afternoon. Jim Cassidy's lovely Cal-bred was beaten two noses by Blind luck in the KY Oaks and Las Virgennes, but owns 2 G1 wins of her own (DMR Oaks, Ashland), as well as scores in the San Clemente and Honeymoon (G2's). It will be interesting to see what decisions Cassidy makes with Evening Jewel between now and into the Cup.

Heavy rain overnight and this morning in Upstate NY, and a wet main track is assured today. The feature and ALL 4 other races originally scheduled for grass (5, 8, 9 and 10) are OFF THE TURF...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Rumors of Glory 8-5
Best Value: #5 Kaffiend 15-1
Next Best: #4 Laylaben 4-1


2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Bricklayer 6-1
Next Best: #2 Jim's Applemartini 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Living for This 20-1


3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Kid Tornado 3-1
Best Value: #4 Storm Falcon 15-1
Next Best: #2 On Vacation 4-1
Super Add: #3 Broken Home 6-1


4th: 27th Lake Placid (G2), F&M-3+, 9f OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

#2 Triple Cream
#1 Hatheer


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Fight for V L T's 4-1
Best Value: #2 Aces Mark 6-1
Next Best: #1 Quick Money 3-1
Super Add: #4 Zone Breaker 10-1


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-5
3: 2-4-7
4: 1-2-6
5: 1-2-4-10

2x3x3x4 = $72


6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Accredit 4-1
Next Best: #6 Belo Sorto 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Samhoon 7-2
Super Use: #3 Cave's Valley 5-1


7th: NY-MDN CLM, 2+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD,

Most Likely: #6 Lion Knight 9-2
Next Best: #5 Local Legacy 7-2
Best Value: #7 Disco Capote 10-1
Exotics Use: #2 For Wes 7-2


8th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Pewter 8-1
Next Best: #14 Aquino 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Big Push 3-1
Super Use: #5 Close to the Vest 7-2


9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 I Dreamt I Was 9-2
Best Value: #4 My Honey Laurie 20-1
Next Best: #2 New York Kitten 3-1


10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 9f OFF THE TURF (Super)

No way to know at this hour who stays and who goes in this utterly mysterious maiden guess event..

Best Value: #1 Dazzle Her 12-1
Next Best: #3 Flying Vision 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Street Chimes 10-1
Super Add: #10 Tapit Dancer 15-1


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-6
8: 6-8-14
9: 4-5
10: 1-3-4-10-13-14

2x3x2x6 = $72


It's a real messy day... Hope everyone does OK!


Good luck!
Steve

RESULTS 8/21

Chalky late action allowed for 4 straight on top Most Likely winners Friday at Saratoga, as the $73 quad covered its' expense. The score for the afternoon came in the contentious 5th race where 8-1 Persuading held off 9-1 Kittylicious to produce a gracious $184.50 ($2) exacta that I was lucky to have 2.5 times. This race showed yet again where the best opportunities lie for profit at Saratoga, as a confused public had a hard time making anyone a clear favorite. Eight of the nine runners were under 10-1 in this ALW, with these prices: $3.50, $4.80, $5.50 (2), $6.90, $7.70, $8.00, $8.90. Although Dale Romans' winner turned in a sharp effort, Gary Sciacca and Jim Crocetto's Kittylicious was actually best, and continues to improve. A frustrated Ramon Dominguez was anguished after the race for having to wait nearly three quarters of the stretch for room to run. When Kitty saw daylight, she closed the gap on the leader in half a dozen jumps before getting even with her just after the wire. Look for her to run back successfully early in the Belmont Fall Championship Meet that lies ahead... Hope you did well Friday and are excited aboutthe great Alabama, Del Mar Oaks and Arlington Million stakes cards across the country!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very good ALW to start Alabama Day, with balanced field of within enough of every kind of pace interest to assure heat is honestly run..

Most Likely: #2 Writingonthewall 3-1: Some pressure perhaps, but his best wins here.. WON ($7.90)
Best Value: #4 Northern Giant 10-1: Turf bow, TP synth try say OK; Gomez adds appeal.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Good Prospect 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Xodo 6-1 6th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

After an OK start, these MDN affairs are besting me regularly. Watch board for clues on pairs from Zito and Pletcher..

Most Likely: #1 Mucho Macho Man 5-2: CRC debut was good; Barn switch a negative.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Brilliant Speed 6-1: Barn excels with 2nd timers; 7f suits aptitude.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Curlinello 3-1: Full brother of Pleasant Strike shows steady worktab.. WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Manhattan Man 10-1: SW half Storm Surge was fast early; Totes bullets.. 9th


3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Good to Be Me 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Dirt Track Demon 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Elsie's Warrior 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Elsaroarin 3-1 2nd


4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky $25k claimer..

Most Likely: #6 Callide Valley 3-1: Likely ouchy but working and takes drop.. WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #2 Retriever 8-1: Turns back; Note bullet and blinker addition.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Talk to Nick 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Billy One Lite 5-1 4th


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Recall that Arcodero dictated pace from up front in similar 7/31 event that included 2, 4 and 7 that face off here..

Most Likely: #3 African Diamond 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Two Brash 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Heart Butte 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Slevin 12-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3
3: 1-2-8
4: 2-4-6-7
5: 3-4-7

2x3x4x3 = $72


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Tall Tale Teller 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Seek to Destroy 5-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Pin Number 6-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #5 Igoturback 8-1 5th


7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Into My Soul 2-1 5th
Next Best: #1 SCR
Best Value: #10 Bold Vindication 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Budget 8-1 7th


8th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Santiva 5-1: Chased in dirt debut; Spot likely suits talents.. 2nd
Best Value: #4 East of Danzig 10-1: Owns angles where Matz actually does well.. 6th
Next Best: #6 Mr. Tribute 3-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Legend of Navarone 4-1 3rd


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Contentious and somewhat strange conditional claimer that includes pair of steeplechase refugees..

Most Likely: #3 Don Balcazio 7-2: Who pressures him exactly? Can back it down.. 4th
Best Value: #4 Pagan Ruler 20-1: Broke through in last; Saves ground from just off.. 6th
Next Best: #5 Global Genius 8-1: Alternating efforts; Gets slight pilot upgrade.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Peace Fire 8-1: Goggles keeps him close; Bred to enjoy added distance.. 2nd


10th: 130th Alabama S. (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD, Super)

Entertaining edition of this great sophomore filly standard. May be far more wide open than just a Devil May Care-Blind Luck confrontation with deciding factor possibly coming down to matchup of Dutrow Brothers' gals..

Most Likely: #2 Devil May Care 7-5: Courageous in Derby try; CCA Oaks effort ideal prep.. 4th
Best Value: #1 Acting Happy 12-1: One-paced Siegel homebred should love trip.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Blind Luck 8-5: Falls short without proper set up; Distance a concern? WON ($5.60)


11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #4 Well Suited 9-2 4th
Next Best: #11 Recharged 7-2 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Peat Bay 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Strolldownbroadway 7-2 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-6
9: 2-3-4-5
10: 1-2-4
11: 4-11

3x4x3x2 = $72



ARLINGTON PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 79th Stars and Stripes (G3), 3+, 13f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Free Fighter 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Blushing Bear 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Perfect Shower 3-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Memorial Maniac 6-1 WON ($18.80)


8th: 34th Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Defection of Two Notch Road from this allow for potential of very easy lead for Workin for Hops. Desormeaux may have to keep Paddy O'Prado closer than in last pair, but 3X GSW has shown he can adjust..

Most Likely: #1 Paddy O'Prado 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #5 Dean's Kitten 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Workin for Hops 5-2 3rd


9th: 21st Beverly D. (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #5 Rainbow View from this deep and balanced set.. Juddmonte surprisingly has just the 2003 version with Heat Haze to its' credit, but Bill Mott looks for 3rd Bev since 2000, and Kent Desormeaux has won the last pair!

Most Likely: #9 Treat Gently 9-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Gypsy's Warning 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Hot Cha Cha 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Acoma 8-1 7th


10th: 28th Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Solid if unspectacular cast for this American Turf institution, and though you need to respect Gio Ponti for what he is, you are obligated to look for alternatives..

Best Value: #10 Summit Surge 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Gio Ponti 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 General Quarters 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Tazeez 6-1 3rd


<$100 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-8
8: 1
9: 2-3-4-9
10: 2-3-4-6-9-10

4x1x4x6 = $96

RESULTS 8/20

Another Another afternoon where the range was tough for me to find before some modest hits through the middle stages of the card. Was stymied for the most part on multi-race wagers, and only brought home any real plus revenue in the 6th with an exotics sweep keyed by Star of New York. Hope you did OK despite my scuffling around... It's Pre-Alabama Friday at the Spa, and a quirky, maiden-laden docket awaits with a pair of exceedingly challenging P4's. $117k carryover is available on the Del Mar sextet which kicks off at 7:30pm ET tonight!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

I'll make her a 'Best Value' second choice, but 6-1 is a silly ML on Rice's #8 Sextant who will take plenty of money working nicely for return from year on the shelf..

Most Likely: #3 Exiled Princess 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Sextant 6-1 WON ($6.30)
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Madness 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Peaches 10-1 6th


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Another 2yo event with absolutely nothing substancial on which to formulate an opinion. One nugget may be Proctor's firster #4 Bayou Tortuga, who hails from highly successful string of fast, win early runners out of the productive Dixieland Band mare Tortuga Road..

Best Value: #4 Bayou Tortuga 5-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Cadazzle 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Tap for Luck 5-1 WON ($16.60)
Super Add: #2 Roly Poly Goalie 12-1 7th


3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Top three below seem decidedly better than those omitted..

Most Likely: #2 McVictory 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Moontune Missy 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #6 Sneaky Girl 7-2 5th


4th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Hardwicke Hall 4-1 4th
Best Value: #11 Jet Fever 10-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Miss Marla 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Copious Notes 12-1 6th


5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Authentic and outstanding ALW event to close out the tough early quad; Refuse short prices as this is wide open..

Best Value: #8 Queen Hazel 15-1: Live with anything close to CD spins.. 8th
Next Best: #9 Persuading 8-1: Plenty of pedigree for switch to sod.. WON ($17.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Kittylicious 12-1Pilot broke MDN; Game this level last.. 2nd
Super Add: #2 Frances Gardner 6-1: New to capable barn; Adds GoGo for ground-saver.. 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4
3: 2-5-6
4: 4-6-8-11
5: 4-8-9

2x3x4x3 = $72


6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Turf sprint with bad bunch of coconuts. AE-#11 Charmed (6-1) a factor if drawing in..

Most Likely: #6 Long Gone 7-2 WON ($7.90)
Best Value: #9 Rani Baba 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Charmed 6-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Gone Home 6-1 9th


7th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Jacky Juice 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #9 Glance My Way 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Miss Odette 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Hear Her Roar 10-1 4th


8th: 31st Yaddo-NY, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Merriwether Jessica 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #7 You Go West Girl 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Paraiba 8-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Chestoria 3-1 3rd


9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Conspicuous 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #5 Keith's Kitten 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Playful Majesty 20-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Erin Erin 6-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-8-9-11
7: 9-10
8: 1-7-11
9: 1-3-5

4x2x3x3 = $72 $1 P4 (6-10-1-3) Paid $73.75

RESULTS 8/19

May have let one of the best possible scores of the meet slip by Wednesday when attempt to lean on Silver Timber as single in the feature cost the $3,337.50 ($1) late Pick 4. Julien Leparoux gave the multiple turf sprint stake winning Chad Brown trainee absolutely no chance to win in the Troy, while third choice 'Next Best' Awakino Cat ($14.60) found his seam on the way to the wire. When 'Super Add' Glacier Bay ($26.20) wired the nightcap, it combined with 6th race 'Best Value' Diablo's Fire ($7.20) and 7th race 'Most Likely' Avenging ($15.40) for the bulbous quad payoff.

One hope was that some listeners/readers took defensive cover from the P4 single via P3 plays around the feature; The 6th-8th trioka paid $238.25 while the 7th-9th returned $786.50... It was a quirky day overall as I struggled through the first half of the card before finding winners on the second half. Hope everyone did well and we can come across another opportunity like Wednesday's between now and Labor Day. Carryover in the P6 for the third time in 4 Thursdays where NYRA was ready to seed the sextet with $100,000!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Opera Heroine 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Fourth Chapter 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Witchy Meeting 5-2 10th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Typical Toga juvy event with well breds and well meants. Watch the board as betting barns like McLaughlin's will be clearly active or dead with a horse like #3 Emcee. #1 (POE) Justin Phillip, front end of Zayat ownership entry, is half to fast MSW Keyed Entry and SW Successful Mission, and Steve Asmussen told Seth Merrow and I on 'Keyword: Saratoga" Monday that the First Samurai colt has come along steadily and is well prepared after a long string of drills..

Most Likely: #1 Justin Phillip 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 SCR
Best Value: #3 Banned 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 It's Truly Ahvee 4-1 3rd

SCR Add: #5 Major Duomo 15-1


3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Next Best: #4 Floating Heart 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 SCR
Best Value: #2 Miss Match 5-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #7 Manitoba Miss 8-1 5th


4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

#4 D'bigcat to SCR after drawing in and winning off-turfer Monday and no longer eligible for condition..

Most Likely: #5 Fuzzy's Story 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Dance Floor Maniac 4-1 WON ($6.30)
Best Value: #6 Lion's Lair 8-1 4th


5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Wicky Jones 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 It's My Party 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Ry Bread 5-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Thankfulness 7-2 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-5-8
3: 2-4-5
4: 2-5-6
5: 5-6

4x3x3x2 = $72


6th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Star of New York 5-2: Collared late; Sits behind speed.. WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #5 Capt. Obvious 6-1: May simply prefer dry land.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 In Just We Trust 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Eltish Star 10-1 4th


7th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Deciphering Dreams 3-1: May be the only actual horse in field.. WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #6 Artie Lovesto Party 8-1: Outside shot to be Schiller's first winner.. 10th
Next Best: #10 Cerveza de Barril 8-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Dual Citizen 10-1 2nd


8th: West Point-NY, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Straight Story 5-2: Class edge but pace pressure adds intrigue.. WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #2 Minnie Punt 9-2: Logical value inclusion saving ground for rally.. 7th
Next Best: #10 Banrock 3-1: Tough, consistent and loves the strip.. 4th
Super Add: #11 Piazza Di Spagna 30-1: In deep, but collapse potential and he'll run late.. 8th


9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Quality turf sprint with bona fide faves and well-priced dirt-turf movers to consider..

Most Likely: #2 I've Got Speed 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Delano 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Bonavento 6-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Delong Road 12-1 5th


10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Hard to get enthused about 5-2 ML favorite Such Time as This whose figs were earned at DelPark..

Best Value: #9 Jazzy Moves 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 SCR
Exotics Use: #10 Cover Story 5-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Song for Pupcake 8-1 2nd

SCR Add: #2 Such Time as This 5-2 WON ($6.30)


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 5-6
6: 2-4-5
7: 8
8: 2-7
9: 2-5-7-8
10: 9-10

2x3x1x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-8-10
8: 2-7-10
9: 2-5-7-8
10: 9-10

3x3x4x2 = $72

RESULTS 8/18

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

SCR #6-#9-#10

Most Likely: #3 Bea Bet 3-1: "First time Rudy" and was OK anyway.. 2nd
Next Best: #9 SCR
Best Value: #10 SCR
Super Add: #2 Miss Lulu Belle 6-1 4th

SCR Add: #1 Annie's Melody 5-1 6th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Spa City Lover 5-2: Debuted OK as beaten fave.. 2nd
Best Value: #4 There Goes Molly 15-1: Half to 'fast early' R Betty Graybull.. 9th
Next Best: #3 Lady Maureen 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Brownsteins 8-1 8th


3rd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Though I find most Starter ALW's tricky, this bunch is maddeningly treacherous with karma moves, trainer switches, last out winners and more to consider..

Most Likely: #4 Conga Bella 7-2: Cuts back; '10 debut this level would win.. 7th
Best Value: #2 Hey Babe 10-1: Downstate lawn zips adequate; OK on main.. 6th
Next Best: #7 Stanford Dolly 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Grosse Pointe Anne 4-1 5th


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

As I've been harping, these mile and 'teenth events, especially on the Inner Turf, have been fun betting affairs; Use big prices and consider playing against ML fave Intercoastal (3-1) who neesd lead from outpost and 2nd choice El Real Madrid (7-2) who seems simply better suited for the main..

Best Value: #4 B Z Warrior 15-1: Returns to right spot; Gets 5# from all.. 7th
Next Best: #7 Riptide 10-1: Ridden like a mook by Choppy 2 weeks ago.. 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Doctor Cal 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 El Real Madrid 7-2 2nd


5th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Quebrada Shiner 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #4 Diamond Dina LATE SCR
Best Value: #9 Atrea 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Elle a Gent 4-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4
3: 2-4-7
4: 2-4-5-7
5: 1-4/SCR

3x3x4x2 = $72


6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P34, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Crescent Moon Dr. 4-1: Off turfer last was career best.. 7th
Best Value: #9 Diablo's Fire 5-1: Domino solid overall, sharp with 2nd timers.. WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #10 Liberal 9-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Classroom Legend 3-1 6th


7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Avenging 6-1: Voss adds Dominguez; Previous efforts good enough.. WON ($15.40)
Best Value: #1 Raymond 10-1: Gets pilot upgrade for inside trip.. 6th
Next Best: #7 Pico Dinero 5-2 DNF
Super Add: #5 Naughty You 7-2 2nd


8th: Troy, 4+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Silver Timber 8-5 5th
Best Value: #9 Yield Bogey 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Awakino Cat 4-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #5 Hold the Salt 15-1 4th


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Superb betting race..

Best Value: #8 Sea of Sea 8-1: In nice form and still improving.. 7th
Next Best: #9 Nacho Corona 7-2: Back to best off break; Expect progress.. 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Rigby 6-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Glacier Bay 15-1 WON ($26.20)


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-9-10
7: 1-5-7-9
8: 2
9: 3-4-5-7-8-9

3x4x1x6 = $72

GUS ALONSO'S WEDNESDAY ACTION 

Del Mar


R5 – Cal Breds OC 25k / N1X

#1 Cee’s Pryme – Strong debut on the not so friendly front end at DMR.
#2 Sammy’s a Runnin’ – The stretchout might help his chances.
#4 North Fork – Eligible to improve off comeback win.
#3 Lodi Red – Must translate two turn form to synthetic track.

R6 – Green Flash Handicap 75k (Turf 5F)

#5 Cost of Freedom – Old classy vet will be gunning in turf debut.
#2 Quick Enough – Barn on fire and he’s 2 for 2 at the meet.
#3 California Flag – BC Turf sprint champ has been giving time to recuperate.
#6 My Summer Slew – Looks to sit a good stalking trip. Class check?

R7 – OC 62k / N2X

#7 Crisis of Spirit – The cutback and class relief make him the one to beat.
#6 Fund Raiser – Has been knocking on the door, but stablemate more appealing.
#1 Precious Union – Time to find out if she’ll handle the synthetic surface.
#4 Softly Singing – Consistent sort should be contending for minor award.

R8 – Cal Breds MSW 52k (Turf 8F)

#10 Tribal Nation – (Value Play) Upgrades pilot and dangerous player off the pace at a price.
#3 Minister d’Oro – Just missed in most recent, so he’ll be the chalk with an obvious chance.
#4 Mediterrano – Trainer lethal in 2nd start with limited stock and top jock sticks.
#8 Sammartino – PVAL could be attempting a theft on the front end?


PK4 – 1 2 3 4 8 / 2 3 5 6 / 7 / 3 4 10 = $30 ($.50 play)


Good Racing Luck

RESULTS 8/16

Number of crazy horses spiced up the Sunday Spa action and produced a nice $63k P6 carryover for Monday. The pinnacle of surprises certainly was Dallas Stewart's MSW winner Marvel Gaye ($69.00) who upset a field full of better bred baby girls with a strong finish under Kent Desormeaux.

I didn't get much of anything on the afternoon, though Best Value top choice Fancy Fiona ($19.20) in the 5th and dead heat double trifecta payoffs in the 4th took the edge of P4 and P3 shutouts. The score that I missed was the 3rd-4th-5th Pick 3 that returned $624.00 ($1) with Who's Willie Fitz ($44.80) starting it before Happy Week and Fancy Fiona. I had added Willie to the plays as a SCR Add, but didn't have a P3 ticket with him on it.

The monstrous Del Mar carry spread a little prize money ($3,666) to a lot of players with generally formful results. I caught 5 of 6 for a $66.60 conso. Hope you did OK Sunday and well over the weekend! Ron Anderson, Steve Asmussen and Michael Blowen join Seth Merrow and I this morning on "Keyword: Saratoga" on Capital OTB Channel 12, and a tricky carryover card at the Spa could provide another day of nice mutuels...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Firey Red 2-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Consequence 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Weekend Fantasy 6-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Go Ask Alex 12-1 3rd


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, NO Super)

Best Value: #5 Thatagirl 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Hurricane Barb 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Tea Party Gal 5-1 4th


3rd: Saratoga Special (G2), 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Kantharos 4-5 WON ($2.30)
Next Best: #1 Bail Out the Cat 8-5


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$63k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #1 Grand Terror 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Stylish Fella 4-1 WON ($8.50)
Best Value: #7 Dark Cove 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Dare to Live 10-1 4th


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Yet another one of these terrific NY turf ALW's. Respect the top choices, but be sure to include prices because they will be in the mix..

Most Likely: #1 Justify 7-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Gitchee Goomie LATE SCR
Best Value: #10 Sounds Familiar 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Tutti Va Bene 12-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-5-7
3: 4
4: 1-4-7-8-9
5: 1-7/SCR-10

3x1x5x3 = $45


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Sit Chilly 6-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Lemon Tiger 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Goodgollymissdolly 10-1 7th
Super Add: #10 My Sweet Emily 15-1 8th


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Run to Grand Ave. 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #4 Renewed Hope 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Adams Circle 4-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Papa Frita 8-1 3rd


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Given difficult of rest of the P6 sequence, most will have to live with Tahitian Warrior as a single. But shouldn't he be running in the King's Bishop?

Most Likely: #2 Tahitian Warrior 1-1 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #4 Starforaday 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Uwannapieceofthis 8-1 3rd


9th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #15 D'bigcat 5-2 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #8 Regal Soul 12-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Dixie Night Out 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #14 Broken Home 8-1 4th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-7-8
5: 1-7
6: 4-8
7: 3-4-6-10
8: 2
9: 8-15

3x2x2x4x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-8
7: 3-4-6-10
8: 2
9: 7-8-14-15

3x4x1x4 = $48 

RESULTS 8/15

Stupidly left obvious Stay Thirsty off ticket Saturday to kill a chance at late P4, but was able to string together a handful of exotics and late P3 to salvage the afternoon. Telling's repeat in the Sword Dancer at 10-1 under a sharp Garrett Gomez ride was the highlight of the day keying a $514.00 tri with 9-2 Bearpath and 7-1 Al Khali. Tri boxes were the order of the day in fact with the 6th ($340.50), 7th ($105.50), 9th ($90.25) and 11th ($171.25) all available along with the Sword Dancer's $514! Hope you did well...

Meet reached the midway point Saturday, and I start the second half having built a very nice bankroll cushion on the strength of the multi race wagers. A survey of just the P4 plays thus far found $2,709 invested with $5,960 returned (+$3,251). Coupled with a handful of other sizable P3 and triple hits, the first 20 days of the session have been highly productive. But just to show how hard it is to win long term in this game, despite being "up" around $5k for the meet, I am still down about $3k in 2010 after struggling mightily during the first third of the year. Will do all I can to make the next 20 days as profitable as the first 20! It starts out with a straightforward looking card Sunday at the Spa and an enormous $847k carryover at Del Mar.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Kissa Melissa 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Verse Choir 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Lady Durlyn 9-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Poovey 7-2 2nd


2nd: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Beyond top tab of Bond's Brunelli, another one of those Empire scrammbles that produce great mutuels. Spread far and wide to catch numbers underneath selection who should win despite pilot..

Most Likely: #5 BRUNELLI 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Beth's Kitten 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Rappaport 12-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Unforgettable P J 20-1 9th


3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

One option is to be against 2-1 ML fave Payout, but Brown going too well to take strong stand against. Respect, but don't fear with barn below par with these kinds of returns..

Best Value: #6 Marsh Haven SCR
Most Likely: #8 Payout 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Gotta Go Round 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Ponte Vecchio 12-1 8th

SCR Add: #2 Who's Willie Fitz 8-1 WON ($44.80)


4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Happy Week 5-2: Overmatched in stake; Sits trip.. WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #4 Lily Meadow 6-1: Turns back off CD ALW v. stakes caliber.. 2nd-DH
Next Best: #1 Obey the Rules 6-1: Ouchy filly but last fits and should rally.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Spina 10-1: Personal favorite's 2 W's came this strip.. 2nd-DH


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched bunch with many here likely worth more than the $25k tag hanging on them. I prefer nicely toted Fancy Fiona (5-1), but trip could easily boost any of a half dozen to diploma..

Best Value: #9 Fancy Fiona 5-1 WON ($19.20)
Next Best: #4 Seaside Run 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Deanallen'skitten 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 To the Point 6-1 4th


@$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5
3: 7-8
4: 1-2-3-4-8
5: 1-4-5-9

2x2x5x4 = $80


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Golly Day 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Motion Play 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Dbl Nvisabl George 12-1 6th
Super Add: #6 El Corriente SCRATCHED


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Networking 3-1: Great family; Big edge having started.. 4th
Best Value: #6 Barn Diva 9-2: Sibs all winners including MGSW High Cotton 5th
Next Best: #7 Dance Quietly 7-2: Saint Liam half, but full to 'fast early' American Dance.. 7th
Super Add: #9 Afaaf 6-1: O/O sister of Funny Cide, half to Rule.. 2nd


8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Sterling Silver 3-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Up in Lights 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Smart Farming 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Prize Catch 4-1 WON-DH ($5.00)


9th: 94th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Position Limit 5-2: Tough to fault off big fig debut romp.. WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #3 Hula 15-1: Game in debut CD win; Adds Dominguez for stalking try.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Alienation 4-1: Brings M. Garcia with her for dirt bow.. 2nd
Super Add: #2 Miss Sarah Brown 8-1: CRC filly by sire that zipped on this oval.. 10th


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Medaglia's Express SCR
Best Value: #2 Smooth Transition 15-1: Better now on lawn? Martin comebackers excel.. 8th
Next Best: #6 Cops Fever 6-1: Hard knocker a minor award specialist.. 5th
Super Add: #9 Shimmering Forest 7-2: Takes disconcerting drop.. 3rd

SCR Add: #8 Epicurus 6-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-6-7-9
8: 1-4-7-9
9: 8
10: 2-6-9

4x4x1x3 = $48



DEL MAR


PRE-SCRATCHES


<$100 P6 -- $847k Carryover -- Play:

4: 4-5-7
5: 6
6: 7
7: 1-6
8: 1-4
9: 1-11-12-14

3x1x1x2x2x4 = 48 x $2 = $96 $2 P6 (5 Correct) Paid $66.60

GUS ALONSO'S SUNDAY ACTION

I had a few decent winners yesterday, but couldn't manage to connect on a Pick 4 with the best chance being at Del Mar where I was alive to four horses in the finale only to see a first time starter knock me out. Overall, it was a fun afternoon of racing.

Today, the focus is primarily on the huge Pick 6 at Del Mar, which seems extremely approachable even with a smaller ticket. Arlington has a nice Pick 4 sequence carded for Sunday afternoon. Good luck to all.



Arlington Park


R6 – OC 40k / N2X

#5 Sweet N Sour Nina
#1 My Sugar Bear
#2 Jitterbug Blues
#6 Stealth Woman

R7 – MSW 38k (Turf 8F)

#9 Aditsan
#2 Indy Bouquet
#11 Prima Dyna
#10 Silver Crush

R8 – OC 40k / N2X

#2 Sheltered
#6 At the Finish
#4 Pretty Slic Chick
#7 Adhsilver

R9 – ILB MSW 29k (Turf 8.5F)

#9 La Colorada
#1 Zipping Away
#8 Power Bound
#2 People Skills

PK4 – 1 2 5 6 / 2 9 / 2 4 6 / 1 8 9 = $72


Del Mar $847k PK6 Carryover


R4 – MSW 50k (2yo F)

#4 Indian Gracey
#7 May Day Rose
#5 Tell a Kelly
#1 Rachel Jones

R5 – Starter Alw 40k

#6 Galleta Monstruo
#2 Justice Reigns
#3 Big Burly Boy
#8 Hugs to All

R6 – MSW 52k (Turf 8F)

#8 Rauschenberg
#6 Delahoosee
#3 Galayo
#2 Royal F J

R7 – Alw 54k

#6 Spaniard
#3 S.S. Stone
#1 Stacy’s Hope
#7 Leothelion

R8 – G2 John C. Mabee (Turf 9F)

#7 Gozzip Girl
#1 Wasted Tears
#4 Gotta Have Her
#8 Oui Say Oui (Ire)

R9 – Md 25k

#1 Go Lourdes Go
#10 Snovember
#11 Meadow Lake Queen
#9 Tiz o’ Gold

PK6 – 4 7 / 2 3 6 / 8 / 6 / 1 7 / 1 9 10 11 = $96

PK4 – 2 3 6 8 / 6 / 1 4 7 / 1 9 10 11 = $24 ($.50 play)


Good Racing Luck

RESULTS 8/14

Got lucky in dramatic fashion Friday when two favorites bobbed out photos to start the late P4 and lead to a nice ticket. McGaughey-Janney second timer Air Support miraculously held off Grigio in the 7th, before Interactif won the photo in the featured Hall of Fame over ignorable Grand Rapport. Those two fortuitous results led to romps by Charlton Baker's $34.20 Splendid Behavior in the 9th and Ken McPeek's Magdelena Girl ($5.60) which brought home a hearty $574.50 on the $72 punt.

In addition to the P4 bingo, the deep and confusing 9th managed to become an exotics bonanza with the 16-1 'Super Add' from Baker at the heart of the mutuels. Boxing the tabs or keying top choice Active Trader (2nd at 3-2) in the top slots returned the $55.00 exacta, $211.00 tri and $921.50 super. Barney Bonnem in Chicago ("Satan's Twin" at DT) and equally famed Rogo ("We're not gonna take it") from Amsterdam, NY both executed box plays of the selections for the nice score-o's. At least 6 Spa patrons had the P4, making the backyard hop. Hope everyone did well!

Long card of 11 races Saturday with some very tough spots littering the sequences. $157,244 P6 Carryover at Del Mar today... Should be a great weekend.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Eric Donovan's morning line this meet has created some vulnerable favorites, and #3 Carson Hall (3-1) is one of them. Absolutely can win, but is not appreciably better than about 5 others here.. As I've been saying all meet, turf ALW's like the NY bred types and this open version are the best spots to swing for the fences..

Most Likely: #8 Raging Wit 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Spanish Art 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Slambino 15-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Stevil 6-1 2nd


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Exley 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 D'Sauvage 2-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Robbie's Turn 20-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Super Angelo 6-1 4th


3rd: ALW/N1X, 6f (P3, DD)

NO SUPER after SCR of #7..

Tricky little ALW with 4 of 7 back after layoffs of 150-350 days..

Most Likely: #2 Bulldogger 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #4 Bimini 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Not Macho Any More 7-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Footcandles 3-1 3rd


4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 A Saint Among Us 10-1: Improvement from race 2 back can win this.. 4th
Next Best: #8 Toy Indian 3-1: McPeek humming along solidly at meet.. 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Maid to Win 4-1 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #9 Jersey Shore Girl 5-2 2nd


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Night Spirit 9-2 6th
Next Best: #9 Bobbi O. 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Capitalism at Risk 9-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Every Little Thing 7-2 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-8
3: 2-4-6
4: 1-4-8-9
5: 3-8-9

2x3x4x3 = $72


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Dynamic Holiday 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Sunlight Sonata 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 More Than Real 6-1 WON ($9.90)
Super Add: #10 War Clan 12-1 3rd


7th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

One of the day's trickiest events with two of the preferable players outposted in the #'s 8 & 9 slots..

Best Value: #9 Baatesh 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Chairman Now 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Ritual 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Hurricane Day 8-1 WON ($21.40)


8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Brock 3-1: $2.3MM CRC '10 sale-topper out of Tomisue's Delight; Half to Mr. Sidney.. 8th
Best Value: #1 Heisman 10-1: Solid tab but tough post for full brother of Any Given Saturday.. 6th
Next Best: #11 Stay Thirsty 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Super Add: #5 Orsonian 15-1 4th


9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Writingonthewall 5-2 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #9 Silenced 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Hammock 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 J L Bernstein 6-1 3rd


10th: 36th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Al Khali 6-1: Mott regularly takes advantages of opportunities like this.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Expansion 3-1: Carefully and cleverly managed by Chad Brown.. 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Bearpath 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Telling 6-1 WON ($22.60)


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5-T (Super)

Nice to end the day with solid state bred ALW cast..

Best Value: #2 John Wyatt 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Kuggerand 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Bishop of Nola 7-2 WON ($10.00)
Super Add: #10 Mr. Vantastic 6-1 3rd


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 1-6
9: 1-9
10: 1-4-5-6-8
11: 2-5-7-9-10

2x2x5x5 = $100

GUS IS BACK FROM VACATION... THE SATURDAY ACTION!

I’m ready for action after taking a week off on vacation with the family with practically no access to television, cell phone, and internet.

There’s great racing throughout the country this weekend with many options to choose from.


Monmouth Park


R6 – Clm 25k (Turf 8.5F)

#1 Peaceful Crowd
#7 Stormy Mirage
#10 Broad River
#11 Church Service

R7 – NJB Alw 80k N1X

#9 Pasta Lover
#6 Irish Eddie K
#7 Cadence King
#5 Steve N Alex

R8 – OC 40k / N2X (Turf 8.5F)

#1 The Gaillimh Girl (Ire)
#5 Me Love
#9 In the Rough
#6 Choice Play

R9 – Alw 80k N1X

#5 Mushaaseb
#1 My Man Marty
#7 Holyfield
#8 Lion Attack

R10 – Continental Mile (Turf 8F 2yo)

#2 Mesonic – (BEST BET) BSF came back low (58), but his win at Arlington was visually impressive in his grass debut.
#5 Pluck
#11 Giant Patriot
#9 Beatnik

PK5 -1 4 7 10 11 / 6 7 9 / 1 5 / 1 5 7 8 / 2 = $60 ($.50 play)

R11 – G3 Monmouth Oaks

#5 No Such Word
#6 Seeking the Title
#4 Patriotic Viva

Tri Key – 5 / 4 6 – multiple times

Saratoga


R8 – MSW 50k

#11 Stay Thirsty
#6 Brock
#1 Heisman
#9 Eltheeb

R9 – NYB OC 35k / N2X (Turf 8.5F)

#1 Writingonthewall
#10 J L Bernstein
#5 Onzain
#9 Silenced

R10 – G1 Sword Dancer (Turf 12F)

#5 Al Khali – Looking for him to relax early and have enough in the tank late.
#10 Grand Coututier (GB) – With a clear trip he’s a major factor again.
#1 Marlang – Drysdale seems fit to ship and picks up Johnny V. Beware.
#4 Expansion – Always seems to find trouble.

R11 – NYB Alw 43k N1X (Turf 8.5F)

#7 Bishop of Nola
#9 Kuggerand
#2 John Wyatt
#10 Mr. Vantastic

PK4 – 1 6 9 11 / 1 5 9 10 / 1 5 10 / 7 = $48

Ellis Park


R7 – OC 25k N1X

#9 Wild Wit
#1 Cheer Up
#8 Jonmil’s Edge
#3 Got the Call

R8 – OC 25k / N1X (Turf 8F)

#10 Catch Twenty Two
#6 Antrim County
#2 Maltese Dog
#5 Baby Afleet

R9 – G3 Gardenia

#10 Tap Tap Tapping – Has faced some nice fillies this year and held her own.
#1 Direct Line - Big price with a big shot off the freshening from the G1 Madison.
#7 Ravi’s Song – Has done little wrong and should be in good position turning for home.
#5 Secret Kin – Logical player off her last two efforts in Chicago.

Tri Box - 1 5 7 10

R10 – MSW 30k (Turf 8.5F)

#2 Ghost Shopper
#5 Spinning Move
#10 Turallure
#12 Akator

PK4 – 1 3 8 9 / 6 10 / 1 5 7 10 / 2 5 10 = $48 ($.50 play)

Arlington Park


R8 – MSW 38k (2yo)

#10 Thabiaan
#1 Catalano Entry
#5 Caleb’s Posse
#3 Theresmyeverything

R9 – Clm 25k N3L (Turf 8.5F)

#3 More Than Able
#7 Ready to Play
#6 War Sky
#2 Striking Hight

DD - 1 10 / 3 7

Del Mar $157k PK6 Carryover


R5 – Clm 12.5k

#3 Self Defense
#9 Titus Aurelius (Ire)
#8 Joyful Success
#5 Gold Star

R6 – OC 62k / N2X

#2 Afleet Ruler
#8 Mobilized
#5 All Man
#7 Silent Salute

R7 – OC 80k / N1X (Turf 8F)

#1 Hard Way Ten
#8 Malibu Pier
#5 Lava Girl
#9 Hemera

R8 – MSW 50k

#10 Lagoon of Diamonds
#5 Just Imagine
#3 Clubhouse Ride
#8 Jakesam

R9 – G2 La Jolla (Turf 8.5F)

#2 Sidney’s Candy
#3 Macias
#1 Leroy’s Dynameaux
#7 Golden Itiz

R10 – Cal Breds MSW 50k

#3 Arta B Tappin
#7 Teddy’s Promise
#10 Top Student
#9 California Nectar

PK6 - 3 / 2 8 / 1 5 8 / 3 5 10 / 2 / 3 7 = $72

PK4 – 1 3 5 8 9 / 3 5 6 7 10 / 2 / 3 7 9 10 = $50 ($.50 play)


Good Racing Luck

RESULTS 8/13

Hit the early P4 Thursday for 'real money', and enjoyed one of those good kinds of days that are necessary at a meet like Saratoga to build the bankroll. Best Value 2nd choice Valiant Passion was usable in the MSW 2nd race at 15-1 with Ralph Nicks adept at sending babies out ready. When she went off at 30-1, the $63.00 win mutuel was a gigantic bonus and led to the boffo P4. Two obvious chalks followed the tote explosion ahead of $20.20 Al Stall trainee Heritage Hall, who flew home late in the 5th and delivered the best of the 4 possible winning outcomes for the ticket at $1.971.50. P3's within the sequence were nice as well, with the 2nd-4th returning $257.00 and the 3rd-5th $96.50. Missed the late P4 because King Andrew failed to get by Surfing Ian in the 7th, but the day was a good one and I know a number of ATR listeners and Derby Trailers were riding along... Hope all did well!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Kingsdale Ocean 12-1 5th
Most Likely: #7 Winthrop House 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Sly 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Matt's a Giant 5-1 ($29.40)


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Next Best: #3 Sweet William 3-1: Drops down; Cuts back; Turf to Dirt.. WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #2 Flying Gang 12-1: Snared Nicks' 2yo Wed. at 30-1; Note MCLM bow stats.. 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Wildcat Stevie 6-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Wascally Rabbit 12-1 2nd


3rd: Lake Luzerne-NY, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Freud's Notebook 3-1: Turf route experiment flopped.. WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #4 Torrone 4-1: Who doesn't love good torrone (Italian nougat)? 5th
Next Best: #8 Late SCR
Super Add: #6 Amiga Del Sol 12-1 7th


4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Scorper 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Voodoouthinkur 8-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Eager Leader 4-1 6th
Super Add: #2 She's Not Easy 8-1 8th


5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 General Song 5-2 9th
Next Best: #2 Sweat Shop 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Implied Odds 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Warrant Ofc. Cook 7-2 WON ($10.80)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5-9
3: 3-4-8
4: 8-10
5: 2-3-7

4x3x2x3 = $72


6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Surf Cast 6-1: Dam was a classy distance runner.. 8th
Best Value: #9 Air Support 6-1 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #10 Derby Kitten 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Willy Pay 10-1 5th


7th: Hall of Fame (G2), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Interactif 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #4 Krypton 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Nordic Truce 5-2 4th


8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Deceptively tricky group..

Most Likely: #8 Active Trader 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Artie's Chapter 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Consort 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Splendid Behavior 8-1 WON ($34.20)


9th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Satin Jet 5-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Magdelena Girl 6-1 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #9 Sunnybrook 3-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Mardi Belle 8-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-9-10
7: 1-4
8: 1-4-5-6-7-8
9:4-10

3x2x6x2 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (9-1-6-3/4/11) $574.50


Good luck!
Steve

RESULTS 8/12

Wednesday was one of those curious afternoons when the P6 went un-hit despite no ridiculous winners popping up during the sequence. Although winners weren't impossible to identify, it was a day where supporting players like Mike Luzzi, Channing Hill, Leo O'Brien, Mike Micelli, Jimmy Ryerson and ice cold Jose Lezcano all figured in the sextet decisions. The result was a $41k carryover into Thursday's quirky card that may see rain somewhere along the line. My own play was sloppy Wednesday with poor P4 execution but a couple of minor exotic hits that took the edge off losses. My fourth race opinion was the highlight of the afternoon, as keying off Best Value top choice By M K with the rest of the tabs swept the multi-horse mutuels. The Hennig trainee (11-2) fell short of 4th choice Julies Ina Frenzy (7-1), but the exacta ($57.75), triple ($120.00) and super ($816.00) were nice nice returns in the 11 horse field. The missed opportunity of the day came in the 2nd race where Strategic Move (First time Klesaris) went off at 7-1 after failing to appeal at the 3-1 ML. Hope you did OK!

Tough series today with brutally tough early P4 skein that includes a pair of Maiden affairs and slippery starter allowance. Thanks go out to DRF's Brad Free who joined me Wednesday on ATR to preview the big DMR carryover and provided a road map to key horses to help you snare half of the races. Free offered up single suggestions with $11.60 Stroppy (his Best Bet) in Leg A and Goggles McCoy in Leg E, as well as $8 Sky Chant as the top pick in the D leg. You needed to include the 7-2 Sadler entry (Leg B) and 2nd choice Mr. Gennaro (nightcap) to Brad's thoughts to collect the $16k+ that came back!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Parker's Project 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #6 Hidden Trail 3-1 7th
Next Best: #1 All Together 4-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Grantor 12-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Inflation Hedge 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Valiant Passion 15-1 WON ($63.00)
Next Best: #3 Town Flirt 4-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Mean Reversion 15-1 4th


3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Bizarrely, 3 Dance With Ravens fillies, from KY, MD and PA yet, debut here.. NOTE scratch of 1 (POE)..

Most Likely: #9 Smokehouse 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Dopke Gal 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1a Saratogaatseventy 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Point Gammon 4-1 7th


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Frequently hard to judge giveaway horses like 7-5 Sette E Mezzo..

Best Value: #3 Hangingbyathread 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Codeword SCRATCHED
Exotics Use: #9 Sette E Mezzo 7-5 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #5 Fagedaboutit Sal 8-1 2nd


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$41k Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #2 Numb Lips 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Star of New York 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Heritage Hall 10-1 WON ($20.20)
Super Add: #8 Harmonizer 9-2 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-7
3: 3-9
4: 3-5-9
5: 2-8-9-10

3x2x3x4 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (7-9-9-10) Paid $1,971.50


6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Confusing bunch that seem impossible to separate..

Best Value: #1 Cat Be Nimble 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 The West Rim 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Yan Yan 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 National Gallery 8-1 6th


7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 SILENT PIPE 10-1 5th
Next Best: #9 King Andrew 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Brilliant Son 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Miner Bird 12-1 9th


8th: Statue of Liberty-NY, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 In Te Domine 2-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #8 Loyal Shadow 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 In Your Dreams 5-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Raffie's Rose 10-1 3rd


9th: CLM, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

3-1 ML fave Bridge to Nowhere isn't any more likely than the next 4-5 choices..

Most Likely: #7 Always On The Move 5-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Fiery Rebel 15-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Great Crusade 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #3 Bridge to Nowhere 3-1 3rd


10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #2 Precision Farming 5-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #9 Lights Out Lisa 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Kyriana 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Girl Bar 7-2 5th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-9
6: 1-4-6-7-10
7: 10
8: 4-8
9: 7
10: 2-9-10

2x5x1x2x1x3 = 60 x $2 = $120


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 9-10
8: 1-4-8
9: 3-5-7-11
10: 2-9-10

RESULTS 8/11

Traditional 4 weeks lie ahead at the Spa starting today with Sword Dancer, Alabama, Travers/Personmal Ensign and Labor Day Closing extravaganza yet to come. Had lots of winners scattered around Monday but was doomed by bad ticket building decisions. Hope you did OK... Nice morning in the Capital District and a quirky and seemingly challenging afternoon of racing looms. And don't forget that Del Mar has a $178k carryover that begins at 6pm ET.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Start of a card that features many deep and tricky races, with this one among them. As usual in a turf sprint (and non-winners of 2 lifetimes), can make a case for 7-8 of these, so settle on a race flow scenario that is plausible and include the price horses that can make it pay for you. Note that 2-1 ML fave Flying Sappho (7yo) has NOT improved for Rudy Rodriguez in her two starts under his helm. Should be respected but not feared..

Most Likely: #8 Song for Pupcake 3-1: Third off break.. 4th
Best Value: #4 Auric Girl 8-1: Alternating efforts.. 5th
Next Best: #1 Glory Chaser 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Flying Sappho 2-1 WON ($4.90)


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendous amount of speed signed on here, so unless strip is carrying frontenders, meltdown distinctly possible..

Best Value: #8 Conflicted 8-1: Was better on main before trio of turf tries.. 7th
Most Likely: #7 One Note Samba 5-2: Of speeds, best shot with repeat of last.. 2nd
Next Best: #9 Zone Breaker 6-1: Earned nice fig in MSW debut; Got rest.. 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Audies Champ 20-1: Will try him again after good 3rd at 23-1.. 5th


3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Albany Road 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #2 Roulette Winner 10-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Il Senatore 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Speciale Giorno 12-1 5th


4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Here's another of the mad scrambles of the day with the major contending state bred maiden fillies all within a length or two of each other..

Best Value: #4 By M K 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Song of Broadway 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Silver City Dreams 10-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Julie's Ina Frenzy 6-1 WON ($16.60)


5th: 8th NY Stallion-Cab Calloway, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Along with Thursday's Statue of Liberty, a contentious and fun pair of betting races..

Most Likely: #3 Lubash 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #4 Adirondack Warrior 10-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Seattle Mission 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Zealous Boy 6-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 7-8-9
3: 2-7
4: 4-5-7
5: 2-3-4-10

3x2x3x4 = $72


6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Day's 2nd turf sprint and even more of a crapshoot than R1. Group has little experience with grass and dash, so find angles you like and run with them..

Best Value: #5 Moon Raven 15-1: OK in lawn bow; Has speed, drops & priced right.. 8th
Next Best: #8 Real Rooster 4-1: Showing slight progress, but one paced and sure underlay.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Mission Mike Clark 3-1: Nov '09 CRC bow was OK; Working well for return.. 5th
Super Add: #6 Ex Pat 6-1: Has races that were good enough; Player if sod hop to his liking.. 3rd


7th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

An eclectic collection of former stakes performers, near stars and never weres. Hard to guage preparedness of several here..

Best Value: #5 Greeley's Legacy 12-1: Hard to pass price given solid form.. 8th
Next Best: #8 Sean Avery SCRATCHED
Exotics Use: #1 Trinity Magic 8-1: 2nd off break; Chased sharp splits in return.. 6th
Super Add: #4 Ramsgate 6-1: Everything working for C. Brown; Veteran OK in return for 20k.. WON ($6.00)

SCA ADD: #6 Tall Poppi 6-1 2nd


8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Atomic Rain 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Birdrun 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Seniors Pride 6-1 5th


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Circleboundbay 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Upper Gulch 5-1 8th
Next Best: #9 E Z Passer 6-1 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #8 Deputy's Citizen 6-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-6-7-8-10
7: 1-4-5
8: 2-5
9: 1-7

6x3x2x2 = $72

RESULTS 8/9

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value:: #1 SHARIF AL MEDINA 5-1: Overlay opp; Hope Lezcano is up to it.. 3rd
Next Best: #10 Cozy Lion 9-5: No thanks at price, from post, this course.. WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Risque 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Exton 30-1 6th


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Elusive Tara 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Street Mate 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Button Girl 8-1 WON ($15.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Niji's Grand Girl 12-1 3rd


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Wild race with lots of well bred 3yo fillies, many of which had high adventure in their initial career start. Wide Open..

Best Value: #8 Atavistique 12-1: Jock upgrade off inauspicious bow.. 7th
Next Best: #2 Arena Elvira 8-5: FTL for Mott's Two Item Limit daughter.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Kinora 5-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Wild Banshee 6-1 4th


4th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Unbelievably competitive betting race. No conception of this race is unacceptable as basis for your wager. Swing for the fences... Good luck!

Best Value: #6 Unprecedented 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Bigshot 4-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Distant Sky 10-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Savannah Bay 12-1 11th


5th: 7th Waya, F&M-4+, 12f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Changing Skies 9-5 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #4 Casablanca Smile 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Liberally 12-1 3rd


@$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-4
3: 2-5-7-8
4: 5-6-7-10-11
5: 4-5

2x4x5x2 = $80


6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Impossibly deep turf dash..

SCR #9 Vose the Host

Most Likely: #10 Redefined 3-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Citifest 10-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Hot Money 7-2 WON ($7.10)
Super Add: #6 Strong Impact 9-2 2nd


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Caixa Electronica 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 More Than a Reason 5-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Independence War 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Western Tease 6-1 WON ($9.50)


8th: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 The Underling 8-5 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #1 Biz Jet 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Speckled Bird 3-1 6th


9th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Ginger Snapit 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Proud Dame 5-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Higher Desire 7-2 WON ($8.90)
Super Add: #1 Aptphilly 8-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 8-10
7: 4-6
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 6-8

3x4x3x3 = $72

RESULTS 8/8

Nearly 37,000 thronged the Old Spa on an exquisite Adirondack afternoon Saturday, and only those that were hoping for a definitive Whitney Handicap performance by Quality Road left disappointed. Indeed, it was Al Stall, Garrett Gomez and Team Claiborne who sipped champagne after the Whitney, as Ned Evans' heralded homebred came up empty at 2-5 with not a single visible or viable excuse. The race appeared totally in the control of John Velazquez and the Todd Pletcher trainee while mundane fractions of :24.2, :48.0 and 1:11.4 were posting. But when the real running started off the turn, Quality Road had no 4th gear on which to rely. Instead of motoring away from opponents as he did in the Donn Handicap, Quality Road kept grinding away at the same even pace which simply didn't prove enough against the steady advance of the Arch four year old. The win was particularly notable for the likable Stall, who has been criticized in the past for travails on the Derby stomp or falling short in spots like this. It proved a popular victory, and with one start before the Breeders' Cup Classic on his home track, Blame looks to have placed himself squarely in the Horse of the Year debate. The top pair earned a Beyer figure of 111 for their exciting exploit.

The Test was the other G1 on the card, and it also may set up a horse for a Championship run. Eric Guillot's Champagne d'Oro annexed her second premium stake of the year to go with her Acorn shocker on Belmont Day, and this was another effort which was simply stunning. On the pace and in an immediate battle with Pica Slew from the bell, Champagne d'Oro doffed the Florida invader through fractions of :22.2 and :44.2. But just as in the Acorn, Champagne d'Oro powered through the stretch while closers vainly tried to reach her, effectively running opponents off their feet again. The win was the first G1 victory of Miguel Mena's career, and Guillot expects to try elders in the Ballerina before returning to Churchill for the BC Filly & Mare Sprint. Wins in those events might indeed be enough to earn Medaglia d'Oro miss some hardware in January.

It was an interesting and curiously successful day of wagering Saturday too, with the P4's proving unhittable, but several nice prices and P3's carrying the bankroll. The early action proved particularly fruitful, as Best Value play Pagan Ruler ($18.40) in the 2nd helped boost a $373.00 opening P3 between $14.20 Brother Bird and $8.80 Hear the Footsteps. Angel Penna interrupted the skein and the early P4 ticket in the 4th with Craven Cadin, but that helped trip the best score of the day. Having been knocked out of the early quad, I started a P3 which I may not have played had I been alive into the anchor leg. Overlaid Best Value top choice Montana Knight ($21.60) was a big boost on the win tote, and the Hushion-West Point winner started the lucrative P3 run combining with Chad Brown's latest success (3rd choice Tiz Blessed, $6.90) and Bill Mott's 4,000th winner (2nd choice Mystic ($12.60). The P3 brought back another $325.50, and though I didn't record any more quality hits thereafter, the day was still better than average. Hope you did well! P6 carryover went a second day and starts at $253k with today's 5th...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched starter to kick off card; Favorites like 5-2 Double Eagle may win, but they aren't where you land in scrambles like these trying to make money..

Most Likely: #2 Peahi 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Yankee Fortune 10-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #9 Versailles Road 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Mizzen's Wake 20-1 8th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Some nicely pedigreed state breds including Roddy Valente and Bruce Levine's half to 5X SW Bustin Stones..

Bustin Rocks has SCR'd..

Most Likely: #3 Read the Contract 5-1 7th-Eased
Best Value: #6 Cooper River 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Hysterical Cat 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #7 Crea's Law 5-1 2nd


3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Rock America 8-5 5th
Next Best: #8 Enchanted Circle 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 R J Hope 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Mill Bay 8-1 7th


4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Several interesting babies signed on here including Juddmonte miss Classy Touch, a Maria's Mon out of the wonderful Frankel favorite Flute; Ned Evans' homebred Summer Laugh (Pletcher) who is out of outstanding racemare Summer Colony; Asmussen-Heiligbrodt second time starter Time Counts who is a half to the fast at 2 Rated Feisty and Hennig second out Nicky's Way who counts Vision and Verse as a sibling..

Most Likely: #7 Summer Laugh 5-2 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #8 Time Counts 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Sovereign Crisis 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Hey Valentina 12-1 7th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$253 P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #10 I Am Prince Rahy 10-1: Sharp breezing at OBS.. 7th
Next Best: #2 R Boy Bill 7-2: Showed speed in well bet debut.. WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #3 SCR
Super Add: #4 Perregaux 6-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-6
3: 2-8
4: 5-6-7-8
5: 2-3-10

3x2x4x3 = $72


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Expect SCR of #3 Tutti Va Bene..

Most Likely: #1 Holy Moment 5-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Kaleigh Rose 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Queen of Protocol 12-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Judicial Leader 12-1 3rd


7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendous race with 7-8 of the 11 identifiable as winners, and 5-2 favorite Silk Route not appreciably any better than the next 4-5 choices!

Most Likely: #6 Senada 5-1: Respect Tagg with improving miss.. 4th
Best Value: #3 Vee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Silk Route 3-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Elle Special 20-1 7th


8th: 19th Honorable Miss (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

OK short group of 5, but it's hard to figure why this event lacked participants..

Most Likely: #4 Secret Gypsy 4-1 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #2 Warbling 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 One Smokin Lady 12-1 5th


9th: 26th Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Whatever the G2 above lacks, this sprint makes up for with a fascinating cast of outstanding sprinters. Summit of Speed grads Big Drama and Mambo Meister match up big fig producers Majesticperfection and Bribon, as well as Dubai returnee Gayego. And note that Sid Attard brings OK Kennedy Road winner Smokey Fire south for potential jump up first dirt start. Wow. Should be terrific..

Most Likely: #5 Majestic Perfection 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #7 Smokey Fire 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Big Drama 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Mambo Meister 12-1 6th


10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #9 Strategic Sue 6-1: Gets huge rider upgrade.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Moonwalk Beauty 3-1: C. Martin deadly off brief freshenings.. WON
Exotics Use: #3 Nice and Naughty 5-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Heck 4-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-10
6: 1-5-8
7: 3-4-6
8: 4
9: 5-7
10: 8-9

2x3x3x1x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-6-7-8
8: 2-4
9: 5-7
10: 3-8-9

6x2x2x3 = $72 $1 P4 Paid $137.00

RESULTS 8/7

First of anticipated weekend series unfurled at Saratoga Friday as cool, beautiful weather opened the turnstiles (24k) and infused the patronage to a high energy race day. The special Spa atmosphere was clearly palpable Friday with August having arrived, and the Whitney-Vanderbilt feels like it has potential to rival the meet's showcase Travers-Personal Ensign in three weeks.

Storybook endings made it a highly memorable Friday as well between a pair of stake victories that produced cheers and tears. Early in the day, Tim Snyder and his 'spirited' Lisa's Booby Trap demolished the Loudonville to the complete delight of the appreciative patrons. Snyder's hard luck story, replete with the $4k filly possibly inhabited by the soul of his late wife, has already become fodder for a film script. The filly is 100% bona fide after a 94 Beyer effort under Kent Desormeaux that displayed an added dimension to her earlier displays of a front-running style. The story around her and Snyder has potential to get more magical and capture mainstream media interest.

Later in the day, venerable Tom Voss sent Always First out in the John's Call, the race named for the wonderful hard-trying multiple G1 winner he conditioned and who was fatally injured at 19 earlier this year in a paddock accident. Voss told me on Friday's "At the Races" that he liked having a horse ready for the John's Call, but that today wasn't the day for his 9yo no matter how much he wished it was. Always First of course rallied to win the John's Call and set off the day's 2nd tearful winner's circle celebration. I should have been as tearful myself after dropping Always First from consideration based on Voss' earnest cold-watering.

All in all a great day at Saratoga, and the race weekend is further enhanced by Zenyatta and a big carryover at Del Mar and a terrific series of stakes at Mountaineer on the West Virginia Derby Night card. Hope you did well Friday and are geared up for a superb weekend of summer racing!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Challenging kickoff to Whitney-Test card with cast (7 of 8) of later developing sophomores..

Most Likely: #6 Pistols at Dawn 5-2: Debuted big, working sharp; Style suits race flow.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Lubango 10-1: Displayed stalking gear; Cuts back an eighth.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Brother Bird 7-2; Better whole time trying to break MDN; Underlaid but OK.. WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #2 Mad for Smarty 6-1: Honest Jerkens bay returns to diploma pilot.. 4th


2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Note that Serpe's #11 (AE) Naughty You (3-1) would move into tabs should he draw in..

Most Likely: #2 High Prize: One of the ones here that hasn't exhausted hope.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pagan Ruler 10-1: Barker red 0/12 but alternating efforts and due.. WON ($18.40)
Next Best: #9 Military Star 9-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Maloof Magic 10-1 6th


3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Turf sprint so Rice's #7 Hear the Footsteps (7-2), who hasn't developed at all and needs to improve to contend, sure to be overbet..

#4 Payout SCR'd

Most Likely: #2 Dougie 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Dirt Track Demon 6-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Magnificent Tiger 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Hear the Footnotes 7-2 WON ($8.80)


4th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Intriguing '2nd Division' of card opener with clues available there on runners featured here: #4 Ae Pit (Mad for Smarty); #5 Jaguar Paw (Pistols at Dawn); #7 Bank Heist (Delong Road); #8 Just Hold On (Brother Bird & Mad for Smarty); #9 Bellhouse (Monsignor)..

Most Likely: #5 Jaguar Paw 4-1: Good candidate to be Mott's 4,000th career winner.. 8th
Best Value: #6 Enclosure 9-2: Attended pace (1m) last, adds blinks; Race lacks true speed.. 11th
Next Best: #4 Ae Pit 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Bellhouse 8-1 4th


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Montana Knight 10-1: Steady forward mover; Square number.. WON ($21.60)
Next Best: #9 Macho Joe 5-2: Next opp for Mott's 4,000th; Gate SCR'd last.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Jockey Ridge 5-1: Eligible 2nd off long break for Tagg.. 4th
Super Add: #1 Where Is'em 3-1: Class edge dropping in for Casse.. 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-6
3: 2-10
4: 3-4-5-6-7-9
5: 4-6-9

2x2x6x3 = $72


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$53k P6 Carryover Stats Here..

Very tough start to the sextet sequence with indistinguishable group of first and second time starters..

Best Value: #2 Favorite Hour 10-1: Trombetta 2nd timer half to Eddington 2yo winner.. 7th
Next Best: #4 Justin Phillip 3-1: Zayat namesake half to fast early SW's Keyed Entry, Successful Mission..
Exotics Use: #8 Tiz Blessed 4-1: C. Brown better 2nd out with 2yo's but respect drills.. WON ($6.90)
Consider: #1e WinStar entry 5-1: Mott Pulpit number better of pair; Doubt price holds.. 4th/11th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendous betting race with 7/2 Yankee Empire and 4-1 Livin Large not appreciably better than many here..

Best Value: #10 Prince Wil I Am 6-1: Turf move a Nihei positive; From a Dynaformer mare.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Mystic 8-1: Beat elders breaking MDN 2 back; Developing.. WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #12 Alcomatch 15-1: Needs trip from outpost, but price worthwhile.. 4th
Super Add: #7 Leipzig 10-1: Light-raced Sheppard 5yo OK back from 450 day break.. 6th


8th: Hattie Mosely, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Snow Top Mountain 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Protesting 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Barracks Road 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Ambitioness 30-1 10th


9th: 85th Test S. (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Loss of Franny Freud further open wild affair that will likely prove the more exciting of the day's G1 events; Offer rock solid cast of proven gal dashers and several newer faces that emerged in recent weeks..

Best Value: #4 Bonnie Blue Flag 6-1: Return to Cinemine effort likely enough here.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Buckleupbuttercup 6-1: Soph version of Kenneally's Warbling; Fits race dynamic.. 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Pica Slew 7-2: Respect until she fulfills upside; CRC to SAR historical plus.. 8th
Super Add: #3 Champagne d'Oro 8-1: Showed added dimension in gutty Prioress try.. WON ($12.40)


10th: 83rd Whitney H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most august of handicap division standards at Spa showcases Ned Evans' homebred star that according to Pletcher, appears poised for signature effort..

Most Likely: #3 Quality Road 2-5: 4yo building HOY resume with careful handling.. 2nd
Best Value: #4 Haynesfield 12-1: Honest NY-bred stays around if pace doesn't sizzle.. 4th
Next Best: #2 Blame 4-1: Stall-Claiborne colt has never been off the board.. WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #1 Mine That Bird 12-1: If pace hot, Derby winner comes late; 2nd off break.. 5th


11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Major draw-in as AE #12 Roaring Conquest WILL RUN and is a serious win candidate..

Best Value: #5 Gotta Go Round 8-1: Improving considerably 1st turf a good sign.. 5th
Next Best: #9 City Train 10-1: Has come close and turf move may suit.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Roaring Conquest 8-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Talk Therapy 6-5 WON ($6.00)


<$200 P6 Play:

6: 2-4
7: 3-10
8: 1-2-3-4
9: 2-4
10: 3
11: 5-9-12

2x2x4x2x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50, $75 or $100 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-4
9: 1-2-3-4 (B: 8-9) [C: 7-10]
10: 3
11: 5-9-12

Main: 4x4x1x3 = $48
B: 4x(6)x1x3 = $72
C: 4x[8]x1x3 = $96

RESULTS 8/6

Thursday's Guaranteed P6 card at the Spa was heavily affected by 12-2p rains which took the 4th and 6th off the turf and left the main track sloppy. The afternoon improved as it went along, and a perfect stretch of weather starting Friday will reward those that slogged through the elements yesterday. The racing was actually quite formful as it turned out, and though I tinkered too much with the late P4 play, was able to hit the late P3's with the logicals for $103 and $127. That made up for my ridiculous revision of the P4 to $48 after the second set of SCR's which had Bridgetown off it leaving a nice $480 behind the windows. Uggh... Hope you did OK. Note by the way that NYRA's Thursday P6 seeding resulted in more than $112k invested by sextet seekers...

Great weekend of racing on tap with Quality Road headling the Whitney, a superb betting Test, a short but balanced Honorable Miss and Majesticperfection in the Vanderbilt. Friday's Saratoga action is VERY challenging and could be the kind of day that takes just one hit to score out!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Wall of Worry 7-2: How else do you deal with RudyRod? WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #5 Roaring Belle 4-1: Takes enormous drop; Missed break last.. 8th
Next Best: #4 Money's Sweet 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Dear Marylou 9-2 9th


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Lots of reasons to believe in Mott favorite Avanta, but 8-5 is tough to swallow with Halory Leigh sibling Caribbean Lady dropping in for Pino and potentially live firsters from sharpies like Fawkes, Scherer, Motion and Casse.. Respect the ML choice but use a few in the multis..

Most Likely: #8 Avanta 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #2 Mass Harbor 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Maria's Luck 6-1 5th


3rd: Loudonville, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Funny Feeling 5-2: Appears to get perfect set up.. 5th
Best Value: #5 Lisa's Booby Trap 12-1: As Runyon wrote, "A story goes with it".. WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #6 Zermatt 5-1: As good as stablemate at better tote.. 4th


4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Quick to Charm 3-1: Didn't skip beat moving Brown to Maker.. WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #1 Xela 8-1: Suits level and has been sharp for Schettino.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Dantastic 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Hurricane Heat 12-1 7th


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Florida Girl 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Karen's Joy 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 She Wears the Best 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Guiseppina 10-1 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-8
3: 2-4-5-6
4: 1-2
5: 3-4-7

2x4x2x3 = $48


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Doesn't appear to be much mystery to this turf spint for a diploma..

Most Likely: #8 Chardonniere 3-1: Chased Ash Zee last; Zippy drills.. 4th
Next Best: #6 Vinda 7-2: Ouchy-looking but typical effort close enough here.. 9th
Exotics Use: #2e Goldberg entry 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #1e Ribaudo entry 8-1 WON ($25.60)/8th


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

First of back-to-back 3 turn turf marathons..

Most Likely: #3 Ordination 9-5: Lightly raced Clement gelding bested similar at GP.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 More Than Willing 10-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #1 Cheyenne Nation 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ground Frost 3-1 5th


8th: John's Call, 4+, 13f-IT (DD, Super)

Top 3 finishers from last year's edition are signed on here, though Rod Jenkins' Southwest is AE. Hot Attfield and capable Caramori invade in this excellent specialty event..

Most Likely: #3 Solitaire 5-1: Defender in as good or better form at 5yo.. 8th
Best Value: #7 Coolcullen Times 15-1: Steadily improving for Motion.. 3rd
Next Best: #11 Perfect Shower 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Lignon's Hero 5-1 6th


9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (Super)

9-5 favorite Makeminechocolate not nearly as likely price makes out..

Most Likely: #9 Lateday Edition 2-1: Frog with least warts adds Lasix.. WON ($6.30)
Best Value: #1 Lily's Doll 8-1: Saves all the ground; Gets jock upgrade.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Makeminechocolate 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #10 Sister Berta 30-1 9th; #8 Triple Latte 15-1 7th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 9 in 1st/2nd with 1-5-7-8-10 (1x5x4x3 = 60 + 5x1x4x3 = 60 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 8
7: 1-3-5-7
8: 3-6-7-11
9: 1-7-9

1x4x4x3 = $48

RESULTS 8/5

Computer issues hamstrung me this morning for more than 2 hours, so little time available to recap/preview. Wednesday turned out to be a humdrum day of racing, but stiffling heat and humidity may have been as responsible for that as chalky results. Lost $40 on a winning P4 early, and didn't like Runweiser who upset the 6th and KO'd the late quad. Had some modest bingos along the way and hope you did OK... There is a guaranteed $100k P6 at the Spa today on a very difficult series, as well as a $118k Carryover at Del Mar!


NOTE: Heavy rain appears headed for the area. Stay tuned as to track conditions with the number of grass races scheduled in the P6 Carryover...

4th and 6th taken OFF THE TURF after early P4 started. 4th race selections get ALL...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Skylord 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #5 Gangsterontherun 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Saucy Stash 5-2 5th


3rd: John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Driven by Success 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Legal Consent 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Endless Circle 5-1 WON ($9.40)


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ezzy 10-1 WON ($9.00)
Next Best: #9 Delano 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 SCR
Super Add: #1 Capt. Obvious 6-1 4th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Nice collection of well meant babies including halves to Winslow Homer (Elusive Raven) and Hot Dixie Chick (Simply Delightful)..

Most Likely: #5 Elusive Raven 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Simply Delightful 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Cedar Grove 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Deja Blu 12-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-4-5
3: 2
4: 1-3-4-9 (Becomes an ALL when off turf)
5: 3-4-5-7

3x1x4x4 = $48


6th: MSW, 3+, 11f OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: SCR
Best Value: SCR
Next Best: #9 Macedonian 3rd
Super Add: #5 Ryvit 6-1 5th


7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Dreadful bunch..

Most Likely: #2 Trust of Honor 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #5 Mr. Hadif 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Starr West 3-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Scotchirish 8-1 2nd


8th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

No Inflation now loose on the lead with Brother Nick out..

Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #5 Lemon Spice 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Rogue Victory 8-1 WON ($10.00)
Super Add: #6 Skipadate 10-1 3rd


9th: Latham, 3yo, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Dazzled Saint 6-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Don't Say No 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Bridgetown 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #9 Enumerate 8-1 6th


10th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Best Value: #2 Hey Babe 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Settling Seas 5-1 WON ($9.10)
Exotics Use: #8 Unique Citizen 12-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Ambidaxtrous 9-2 3rd


<$150 P6 Play:

Guaranteed $100k P6 pool..

5: 3-5-7
6: 9
7: 1-2-5-8-9
8: 5-8
9: 1
10: 2-4

3x1x5x2x1x2 = 60 x $2 = $120


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-5-8-9
8: 5-8
9: 1
10: 2-4-5-8-10

5x2x1x5 = $50

RESULTS 8/4

Week 3 of Saratoga commences Wednesday on the heels of an OK if uninspiring Monday that left some money on the P4 table ($273.00) when 4th choice Zapparition ($25.00) was missing from the play. Had winners sprinkled throughout the card, but largely missed anything in the way of super premium scores, though 1st and 7th race exactas featuring Sciacca-trained runners up went a long way towards defraying the day's expenses. 3-1 Lisa Jean edged Dr. Giacopelli's 10-1 Loyal Shadow in the opener producing a $72.50 ($2) mutuel, and when 25-1 overlay Wise Choice got up behind clear choice Australis Princess in the 7th, you were rewarded with an $122.50 ($2) bingo.

The weekend lacked the big hits of the first 7 days of the session, but I feel good as we move into the meet's second quarter with a nice bankroll cushion. Hope you're doing well and are looking forward to a great Wednesday of action. In addition to Saratoga, there is a very nice late P3 at Delaware Park (7th-9th) that includes the $50k Dashing Beauty, as well as the Cal-bred Graduation at Del Mar and the Ontario-bred Shepperton at Woodbine tonight!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

These state bred ALW events have been highly competitive and excellent sources of big prices so far in the meet. Key is beating vulnerable favorites in these events, like Rice's #10 Abilio who is not better than several here but dangerous if allowed to get easy lead and soft trip under Dominguez. And I'll further play totally against ML fave #7 Tom Kitten..

Best Value: #8 Joey's Chance 8-1: Sits stalking trip; Race 2 back wins.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 Barrel of Love 6-1: Hertler with positive stretchout ROI.. 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Gamblin Fever 10-1: Consistant board hitter 7th
Super Add: #1 Mr. Hooker 20-1: Woody Payne's 5yo broke MDN here '09.. 8th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Box 1-3-5-8-10 (5x4x3x2 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


2nd: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Fiscal Stimulus 7-5: Klarman coins the worst names in racing.. WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #7 Ender's Universe 4-1: 3yo debut in vicinty of short number fave above.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Espirito Santo 5-1: Guillot gelding working well for bow.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Coach Billy G. 5-1 5th



3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Well-matched and uncomfortably confusing group featuring Turf/Dirt and Class movers. One question that makes this a difficult race is whether 8-5 Kid Kate and 6-1 Proclaim possibly duel. That would suit the 3 below quite well, as they can sit stalking trips. Fact is that North Rodeo is faster than anyone else here..

Most Likely: #2 North Rodeo 7-2: Flashed foot when escaping synthetics; Well spotted.. 5th
Next Best: #6 Hit It Rich 5-2: Janney homebred broke MDN at this tricky trip.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Dattt Echo: Broke MDN here '09; Style suits, gets Leparoux.. 4th


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not a lot to go on here though best of previous starters clear, and Baker firster appearing well meant..

Most Likely: #1 Bug Juice 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Seek to Destroy 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Bound by Humor 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Double Black 5-1 3rd


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

5TH HAS BEEN TAKEN OFF THE TURF..

Most Likely: #5 Silvercup Baby 4-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Daily Star 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #7 Sorority Sister 12-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-7
3: 2-3-5-6
4: 1-5-6-7
5: 5-10

2x4x4x2 = $64 $1 P4 Paid $22.50


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Custer's Last Stand 3-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Delta Thunder 9-2 6th
Next Best: #9 Renewed Hope 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Audie's Champ 20-1 3rd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Not a lot to this with race Convocation's to lose at tough to swallow 3-5..

Most Likely: #9 Convocation 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #2 Glenwood Canyon 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Overbid 20-1 5th


8th: 7th De La Rose, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Fun edition of this nice listed stake with a couple of invading prices possible. Incomparable Tom Proctor off to great start at meet, and Keertana feels like the right horse at the right price with ground-saving stalker's trip assured. Note musical jocks as Gomez sides with Haka over Keertana and Castellano with Miss Keller over Miss Catalyst..

Most Likely: #4 Keertana 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Haka 12-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Miss Keller 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #6 Daveron 6-1 7th


9th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 System Ready 6-1: Footwear SCR victim bred top/bottom for lawn.. 4th
Next Best: #9 Silver Medallion 7-2: Badge a ? for sod, but sib Sweet Talker was MSW.. WON ($9.50)
Exotics Use: #10 Sweet William 4-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Forum 8-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

Convocation single appears logical approach with potential to snare bonus totes in stake and nightcap..

6: 3-9-10
7: 9
8: 3-4-6-8-10
9: 1-4-6-9-10

3x1x5x5 = $75

RESULTS 8/2

First quarter of Spa session draws to a close Monday after an eclectic weekend that featured perfect weather, robust crowds and good racing. Tony Dutrow, featured on Monday morning's ATR, enjoyed a particularly good Sat./Sun with A Little Warm taking the Jim Dandy ahead of Winslow Homer punching his Travers ticket in the listed Curlin. At Monmouth, Lookin at Lucky scored a visually impressive win in the Haskell, and we will wait and see if Bob Baffert tries to duplicate Point Given's achievement of winning at Oceanport ahead of the Travers. Haskell runner up Trappe Shot, like Afleet Express in the Jim Dandy, gained valuable experience and figures to be that much more prepared for his attempt at the Midsummer Derby.

Wagering was up and down Sunday with the radar picking up some very solid 'Best Value' horses for random hits, but the multis missing their mark. $12.20 Six Flings survived an inquiry to stay up in the 4th, and keyed a $131.00 triple with Stormin Bolt and Fenway Faithful and Aprilmayjune was sharp winning the Maiden Claiming 5th for $17.40 and $25 exacta with even money Atlantic Beauty. Left money on the table in the late P4 trying to single Unrivaled Belle, and that hurt when Best Value on top Enniskillen paid a nice $15.00 on top of the short number favorites. The P4 investments could be defrayed pretty well with $69.50 P3 with Winslow Homer and Malibu Prayer. Not a bad day but exited the weekend feeling like there were opportunities missed over the two days. Hope you did OK... Amsterdam the feature today at Saratoga with possibility of some rain.


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Use #11 (AE) Auric Girl in your exotics should she draw in. Is alternating efforts and is ready for a good one despite Studart..

Most Likely: #10 Lisa Jean 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #5 Loyal Shadow 10-1 2ND
Next Best: #8 Spirit of Rose 5-2 6TH
Super Add: #6 Pretty Cozzy 7-2 5TH


2nd: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Spa City Lover 3-1 2ND
Best Value: #8 Queen Harbor 4-1 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Super Add: #4 Jet Fever 8-1 6TH


3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Adam Rides Again 3-1 2ND
Next Best: #5 Saratoga Steve 7-2 4TH
Best Value: #8 E. P. Bombay 10-1 10TH
Super Add: #2 Tudor King 15-1 8TH


4th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 William's Prayer 4-1 8TH
Best Value: #6 Joes Blazing Aaron 10-1 7TH
Next Best: #2 Sunday Splitsville 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Super Add: #7 Kid Curry 10-1 5TH


5th: CLM, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Rocketing Returns 4-1 3RD
Next Best: #7 Ferentz 8-1 4TH
Exotics Use: #8 The Round House 5-1 5TH
Super Add: #3 Ball Four 5-2 7TH


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 5-6-8
3: 5-6-8
4: 2-4-6-7
5: 4-7

3x3x4x2 = $72


6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult turf sprint with platers of various drop and hop..

Most Likely: #2 Redefined 3-1 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #10 Pewter 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Gold Vendetta 4-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Cires 8-1 8th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Intriguing betting race with favorite meriting edge but a host of options at fat totes beyond her..

Most Likely: #2 Australis Princess 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #8 Alykela 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Mythical Yarn 4-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Wise Choice 12-1 2nd


8th: 18th Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Safe Trip 4-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Latigo Shore 9-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Discreetly Mine 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Super Add: #1a General Maximus 6-1 9th


9th: CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (Super)

Best Value: #10 Sweet Like Sugar 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Zodiac Girl 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Performing 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Zapparition 8-1 WON ($25.00)


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-6-8-10
7: 2-8
8: 3-5-8
9: 8-10

6x2x3x2 = $72

RESULTS 8/1

Hope everyone enjoyed a crazy day of action at Saratoga Saturday and are excited about what should be an exceptional day Sunday. Front end was the place to be Saturday, as horses on or near the lead dominated. Pricey winners utilizing pace-setting thievery included Badgett's Exclusive Scheme in the 1st at $52.50, Levine's Quiescent Hit in the 3rd ($17.40), $90.00 Arcodoro from Champagne d'Oro madman Eric Guillot in the 7th and even Wow Wow Wow on the inner turf in the nightcap ($19.80). There was never a question of a carryover after Arcodero's win, and a fat $82k starts the jackpot in today's 5th.

The Jim Dandy result of A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve 1-2, 2-1 all the way around the track bodes well for the Travers, as Jimmy Jerkens' Afleet Express was getting into gear in the last 50 yards and should move forward going the additional eighth of a mile at the end of the month. There is also no reason for Friend or For and Fly Down not to challenge in the Midsummer Classic either, as the surface wasn't allowing for the making of inroads at thew time of the afternoon. Add in Leon Blusiewicz' Admiral Alex, who was as impressive as advertised debuting successfully at 9f in the 2nd, and the cast that will exit the Haskell, and we have the makings of an outstanding, and fascinating, Travers.

Knew I was in for a lousy afternoon Saturday as I struggled over final selections all the way through the changes at 11:00am. Hope you did OK. "At the Races' taping streaming on the Internet this afternoon live from 3-6p featuring all the SAR and MTH action!

LISTEN LIVE LINK


SARATOGA


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Note going into Sunday how well speed held on every oval Saturday..

Most Likely: #3 Zip by You 7-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Bob's Dylan 12-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Acquired Cat 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #10 Citifiesta 15-1 9th


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Witchy One 5-2 5th
Next Best: #8 Abide 7-2 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Dora 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Bizzy Caroline 15-1 8th


3rd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Considerate 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 I Dreamt I Was 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Notell 5-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Strikealinethruit 12-1 5th


4th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Stormin Bolt 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Six Flings 10-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #6 Success Fee 12-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Fenway Faithful 4-1 3rd

$1 Exacta Paid $16.60
$1 Trifecta Paid $131.00


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$82k P6 Carryover starts here..

Most Likely: #5 Atlantic Beauty 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Aprilmayjune 4-1 WON ($17.70)
Best Value: #3 Alwaysinmydreams 6-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Magical Feeling 7-2 4th

$1 Exacta Paid $24.90


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-8-9
3: 1-7-9
4: 5-7
5: 2-3-5-10

3x3x2x4 = $72


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Almost a subset of the Lake George run Wednesday. Wonderfully deep and intriguing group of quality ALW gals that should make for a tremendous betting opportunity with 7-2 Its Tea Time and 4-1 Silk Route absolutely no better than the next 8-9 options. This is exactly the kind of race that fans and players are referring to when talk turns to the lack of real horses available to racing secretaries nationwide..

Most Likely: #8 Queen Hazel 6-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Empire Spring 8-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Loxy Lady 12-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Beautician 6-1 3rd


7th: 26th Fourstardave H. (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Note cross-entries with MTH stake..

Best Value: #6 Wesley 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Pubic Speaker 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Pinckney Hill 3-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Get Stormy 7-2 WON ($5.10)


8th: 2nd Curlin, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Regal Warrior 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Winslow Homer 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #7 So Elite 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Winaholic 4-1 3rd


9th: 35th Ruffian (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Unrivaled Belle 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Malibu Prayer 2-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #3 Starship Angel 12-1 4th


10th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #8 Enniskillen 10-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #11 Jacky Juice 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 My Two Cents 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Sammy's Goodasgold 12-1 DNF

$1 Exacta Paid $$27.00
$1 Trifecta Paid $64.00


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-5
6: 1-4-8
7: 6-8
8: 1-4-7
9: 2
10: 8-11

2x3x2x3x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-8-9
8: 1-4-7
9: 2
10: 3-6-7-8-11

5x3x1x5 = $75

GUS ALONSO'S SUNDAY ACTION 

Monmouth


R6 – MSW 75k

#12 Eris
#5 Murky
#4 Alla Prima
#2 Hope Affirmed

R7 – Jersey Derby 150k (Turf 8.5F)

#7 Audacity of Hope (GB)
#9 Hudson Steele
#6 Fantastico Roberto (Ire)
#5 Thunder Brew

R8 – Regret 150k

#4 Lady Alexander
#3 D’Wild Ride
#5 Carem Crescent
#8 Noisy Feet

R9 – G3 Matchmaker (Turf 9F)

#10 Tottie (GB)
#9 Quiet Meadow
#6 Tizaqueena
#7 Cherokee Queen

R10 – Teddy Drone 150k

#4 Riley Tucker
#10 Charitable Man
#1 Vaild Sum
#7 Evenings End

PK5 – 2 4 5 11 12 / 5 6 7 9 / 3 4 / 10 / 1 4 10 = $60 ($.50 play)

R11 – G3 Oceanport (Turf 8.5F)

#6 Get Serious
#4 Strike a Deal
#3 Whatsthescript (Ire)
#2 Violon Sacre

R12 – G1 Haskell Invitational

#4 First Dude – Will have to deal with Trappe Shot early and then hold off Lucky. Tough assignment, but he comes in fresh and ready.
#1 Lookin At Lucky – Looks to sit in a perfect stalking trip and he’s shown us he’s gutsy.
#8 Trappe Shot – Seems capable of making a splash versus top company off the numbers.
#3 Ice Box – Passes most late for a minor piece after his Belmont debacle.

R13 – Alw 80k N1X

#9 Modern Cowboy
#7 Dueling Alex
#1 Cactus Charlie
#2 Wake Maker

R14 – NJB Alw 80k N1X

#5 Afternoon Treat
#2 Pinelands Pete
#3 Arctic Air
#10 P J’s Back

PK4 – 4 6 / 1 4 8 / 9 / 2 3 5 10 = $24


Arlington Park - Spot Play


R8 – Clm 50k B (Turf 8F)

#3 Macho Toro – (Live Longshot) Consistent sort drops in for a tag as he exits a sharp Alw race at CD where he was simply overmatched. There’s no world beater here and he could wake up in a big way at a HUGE price. 20-1 ML


Del Mar


R6 – MSW 52k (Turf 8.5F)

#7 Sky Fox
#5 Blazing
#6 Uzziah
#9 Royal F J

R7 – Alw 54k N1X

#5 A Clever Tan
#7 Subsidized
#11 Saint Isabelle
#6 True Religion

R8 – G1 Bing Crosby

#4 El Brujo
#1 E Z’s Gentleman
#5 Cost of Freedom
#6 My Summer Slew

R9 – Md 25k

#8 Dazzling Razz
#9 The Full Lavino
#3 Night Justice
#5 Morganouska

PK4 – 5 6 7 9 / 5 7 11 / 1 4 / 3 5 8 9 = $48 ($.50 play)


Good Racing Luck

RESULTS 7/31

Managed to negotiate both big tickets successfully Friday, catching the early P4 for $316 and the late quad for $926 keyed by delightfully overlooked My Dinah ($16.20 as 7th race Best Value top choice). As anticipated, the second P4 was the sequence that had real potential, and the return was the kind you need at this session to build bankroll power. Hitting for nearly $1,000 is always welcome, but it's also important to pause and recognize that the payoff could have more than tripled had Lights Out Lisa won the 8th race photo.

The key to the multi-race score is getting yourself into position to have the chance to be rewarded for daring play. The parlay for the winning skien was $781 (with Ride On Josephine in the 8th), while the parlay with Lights Out Lisa was an estimated $2,724. You can't know that the P4 would have paid 4X more with Lights Out Lisa that it did with Ride On Josephine, but it certainly would have been at least 2-2.5 than the $926. You build the multi play looking to survive each leg, but need to evaluate races for possible outcomes that the public isn't considering. My Dinah seemed perfectly set up for a dream trip in the Fleet Indian with at least three speed horses likely to be dueling ahead of her. Indeed, that's how it played out, and her win likely knocked out a number of P4 plays.

The key to the multi-race score is getting yourself into position to have the chance to be rewarded for daring play. The parlay for the winning skien was $781 (with Ride On Josephine in the 8th), while the parlay with Lights Out Lisa was an estimated $2,724. You can't know that the P4 would have paid 4X more with Lights Out Lisa that it did with Ride On Josephine, but it certainly would have been at least 2-2.5 than the $926. You build the multi play looking to survive each leg, but need to evaluate races for possible outcomes that the public isn't considering. My Dinah seemed perfectly set up for a dream trip in the Fleet Indian with at least three speed horses likely to be dueling ahead of her. Indeed, that's how it played out, and her win likely knocked out a number of P4 plays.

It should be mentioned too that late scratches of 9th race short number Person of Interest and Fleet Indian S. possible Wicked Diva did P4 winners a favor, as neither of the horses that those tickets received as the post time favorite won. And while those of you that won the late P4 benefitted this time, as has been discussed by Steve Crist, the rule that forces the post time favorite on players needs to be reworked to be more equitable.

Hope everyone did well... Things have been going nicely, and I hope I can keep it going for you today! Big weekend ahead!


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-Fasig, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

State bred stake is largely devoid of pace factors. Can't Maragh boss this around on Akilina?

Most Likely: #3 Akilina 3-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Chestoria 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 You Go West Girl 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Our Golden Dream 8-1 6th


2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Curious group of maidens that have either flashed some talent or are rumored to have ability. A jump up winner here is more likely than possible. ML fave Bakhoor is being asked to do a lot stretching from three quarters to a mile and three eighths..

Most Likely: #1 Medal Round 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Megaholtz 3-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Savannah Bay 8-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Admiral Alex 10-1 WON ($7.40)


3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Hodge-podge of misfits that are being thrown together by connections in a 'have to try something with this horse' manner. ML choice #5 Wonderboy Roy probably will win, and while 8-5 (or less) isn't usually the kind of price you embrace in a race like this, it's tough to latch on to anything else with any confidence.. HAS SCRATCHED!

Most Likely: #10 Strolldownbroadway 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Peytons Heart 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Miss Hanky Panky 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Unforgettable P J 12-1 7th


4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Ducale 9-2 7th
Next Best: #13 Jim's Applemartini 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Chuckie's Honor 6-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Ambassador Bridge 6-1 2nd


5th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Insider Tip 8-1: Priced right and should get cozy trip 5th
Next Best: #3 Caberneigh 9-2: 3rd/break; Handy speed for Gomez.. WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Rescue Squad 2-1 6th
Super Add: #1 En Fuego 7-2 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-6-7-8
3: 1-4-6-10
4: 3
5: 2-3-6

6x4x2x3 = $72


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Has look of baby race that will be productive, but among the firsters, there needs to be one that is really ready to beat Volcker..

Most Likely: #10 Volcker 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Arthur's Tale 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Astrology 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Settle for Medal 6-1 WON ($45.20)


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

As discussed by Steve Haskin on ATR Friday, a very intense allowance with some 3yo's involved that could pop up in the Travers with forward efforts..

Most Likely: #1 Morning Line 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Heart Butte 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Gallant Fields 4-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Two Brash 10-1 7th


8th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 The Noz 3-1: Obvious, but hardly inspiring.. WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #10 Central Red Raider 10-1: One of several that can jump up.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Paddock SCR
Super Add: #6 Felice Di Notte 12-1 8th


9th: 72nd Diana (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Proviso 5-2: Hard to go against off '10 form.. WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #4 Forever Together 2-1: Winless since '09 version of this.. 3rd
Best Value: #2 My Princess Jess 8-1: Consistantly close in big races.. 7th
Super Add: #3 Phola 4-1: Beautifully handled and still improving.. 6th


10th: 47th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Eventhough the 2010 sophomores are a largely mediocre lot, add this to Sunday's Haskell, the 7th race ALW above and perhaps a West Coast invader or two, and you have the recipe for one of the best Travers in recent memory..

Most Likely: #2 Afleet Express 4-1: J. Jerkens carefully developing sharp colt.. 3rd
Best Value: #8 Friend or Foe 8-1: Kimmel-Broman NY-bred red still has tons of upside yet.. 4th
Next Best: #9 Fly Down 3-1: Belmont place pony possible tonic for struggling Lezcano.. 5th
Super Add: #3 Stormy's Majesty 15-1: From top to NY-bred family; Exotics booster.. 8th


11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dr. Alex 7-2 5th
Next Best: #9 British Banker 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Brad's My Hero 15-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Chromosphere 6-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-7-10
9: 1-4
10: 2-8-9
11: 1-2-6-9

3x2x3x4 = $72

GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY ACTION

Saratoga


R8 – NYB 41k (Turf 8.5)

#1 Chingachgook
#4 N P Cat
#7 The Noz
#6 Felice Di Notte

R9 – G1 Diana (Turf 9F)

#5 Dynaslew – Her best races are on or near the lead and that’s where she’ll be.
#4 Forever Together – Two time defending champ always brings it.
#6 Shared Account – Recent form says yes and distance makes her dangerous.
#1 Proviso (GB) – Talented mare might be better suited for the mile trip.

R10 – G2 Jim Dandy

#5 A Little Warm – Ultra impressive in latest and should be in good position throughout.
#9 Fly Down – Off the pace threat, but must run down a tough customer.
#4 Aikenite – Expecting him to close some, but he might be just a closing one turn runner.
#2 Afleet Express – No problem with the two turns and he’s the wildcard here.

R11 – Clm 25k B (Turf 8.5F)

#4 Wow Wow Wow
#1 Chromospere
#3 Ticondero
#7 Morethan Fourhours

PK4 – 1 4 6 7 9 / 4 5 / 5 9 / 1 3 4 7 = $80