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SELECTIONS FROM STEVE AND GUS Print E-mail

Racing writer and broadcaster Steve Byk joined At the Races and Beyond as a handicapper/commentator in November 2005 and assumed duties as host with the introduction of At the Races with Steve Byk in June 2007. An avid racegoer and player for more than 20 years, Byk has attended more than 50 Triple Crown races, 15 Breeders' Cups and visited more than 30 different racetracks across North America. He launched DerbyTrail.com in 2003, where his feature writing, prep previews and editorial columns attracted a large following. Byk and trainers Chuck Simon & Gary Sciacca introduced Dee Tee Stables in December 2006, and have brought more than 130 fans into the game as owners. 


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SUNDAY OCTOBER 19


 

GUS ALONSO'S SUNDAY ACTION


Keeneland


R6 - MSW 56k (Turf 8.5F)

#4 Slippery Rose (12-1) - All systems go for debut from good post.
#7 Vapor Cloud (12-1) - Better break and should improve in 2nd start.
#10 Shift Colors (8-1) - Another one that with a clean start should be there at a price.
#9 Engaginglee (7-2) - Has had some chances, but should find herself in a good position with her tactical speed.

R7 - Alw 58k/N1X

#6 Riyadh (3-1) - Looks to take advantage late when the speed comes back.
#5 Twang (5-1) - Robby's best option might be to send, although the front was not the place to be yesterday.
#2 Bitters' n Bourbon (8-1) - Had no where to go in most recent and should be coming late with Leparoux.
#7 Proven Warrior (7-2) - Has displayed some talent and expecting a sharp performance off the bench.

R8 - Rood and Riddle Dowager 125k (Turf 12F)

#2 Cat's Claw (5-1) - Has the right late closing style here and this is the ideal distance from an ideal post.
#13 Caroline Thomas (9-2) - Brings some back class and looks to be in a stalking position throughout.
#10 I O Ireland (8-1) - Hot jock hops aboard and would think the tactics will be from off the pace.
#3 Appealing Cat (8-1) - Rosie will probably have her forwardly placed and hope she can last.

R9 - MSW 56k (2yo f 7F)

#5 Lassofthemohicans (5-2) - Should take another step forward off the learning experience from debut.
#4 Oceanwave (3-1) - Gained some necessary experience in debut that will help her here.
#8 Desert Valley (10-1) - Expecting a strong finish late off the turn back.
#7 Zig Zag (6-1) - Not much speed lined up and this 1ster could be sent early.

PK4 - 4 7 9 10 / 2 5 6 7 / 2 10 13 / 4 5 = $48 for $.50


Woodbine


R6 - G1 Canadian (Turf 12F)

#6 War Dancer (12-1) - I look for him to have first run on #2 The Pizza man and #10 Reporting Star and we'll get a nice price today.
#4 Brown Panther (GB) (2-1) - Brings a strong European resume and will need some type of collapse to win.
#7 Hillstar (GB) (5-1) - This outfit only ships live runners and this colt has battled some nice ones across the pond.
#9 Big Blue Kitten (3-1) - Has been rock solid and should put in a respectable effort again.

Win #6

Ex Box - 6 / 4 7 9


R8 - G2 Neartic (Turf 6F)

#5 Excaper (9-2) - I'm expecting Wilson to put him on the front and hope for the best.
#1 Upgrade (10-1) - Rosario will save ground early before unleashing a late rally.
#10 Calgary Cat (7-2) - In sharp form and has the right pounce and stalk style in his arsenal.
#2 Lookout (5-2) - Draws well and Boulanger will be looking for a clear lane late.

R9 - G3 Ontario Fashion

#10 Cat Lore (20-1) - Trusting savvy conditioner to have her ready for a peak performance right off the pace.
#3 Silent Treat (6-1) - Loves this surface and will take it to them when the gates open.
#7 Disco Barbie (2-1) - Has been sharp late, but the morning line looks a little skinny.
#1 Goldstryke (5-2) - Campbell has the option but to send, which will be tricky against a deep field.

R10 - G1 E.P. Taylor (Turf 10F)

#3 Just the Judge (IRE) (7-5) - Strong effort in Beverly D and this field is not as deep. I look for Spencer to sit in the 2nd flight before going by turning for home.
#1 Eyeful (GB) (20-1) - Top conditioner seems fit to ship. Signed me up especially at a big price.
#4 Odeliz (IRE) (4-1) - Consistent sort bested top choice this summer and could finally break through for a win this year.
#6 Deceptive Vision (2-1) - Nothing wrong with local charges most recent races.

R11 - Clm 12.5k N2L

#10 True Attraction (3-1)
#6 Hollywood Hallie (6-1)
#8 Yoshi Mori (10-1)
#1 Golden Athena (12-1)

PK4 - 1 2 5 10 / 3 7 10 / 3 / 1 4 5 6 7 8 10 = $42 for $.50

Good Racing Luck

 

 

BELMONT PARK RESULTS 10/18


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tizquick 6-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #8 Andrew Got Zip 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 David Rocks 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Summer Hawk 10-1 5th


2nd: 18th Sleepy Hollow-NY, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

If Ostrolenka is such a reliable choice here, why did Pletcher/Barber keep MD Million eligible Bullheaded Boy home? This set feels slippery..

Most Likely: #2 Ostrolenka 9-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #7 Good Luck Gus 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bullheaded Boy 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Market Conduct 5-1 3rd


3rd: 18th Maid of the Mist-NY, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Romans fave 'Patty' was under BC Juvy Filly consideration..

Most Likely: #9 Temper Mint Patty 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Myfourchix 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Quezon 7-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Sandra 6-1 4th


4th: 36th Mohawk-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Top 3 interchangeable..

Best Value: #1 Kharafa 5-1 WON ($15.40)
Next Best: #9 Lubash 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 King Kreesa 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #8 Notacatbutallama 6-1 4th


5th: 36th Iroquois-NY, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 La Verdad 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #4 Willet 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Risky Rachel 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Irish Whisper 15-1 8th


<$75 P5 Grid:

1: 2 (A), - (B), 6-7-8 (C)
2: 2-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 4 (C)
3: 9 (A), 4 (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-3-9 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 6 (B), 5 (C)

A/B: $48
Full A/B/C: $70 $0.50 Pick-5 (1,2/2/6/1/8,9) Paid $161.25


<$60 P4 Grid:

2: 2-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 4 (C)
3: 9 (A), 4 (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-3-9 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 6 (B), 5 (C)

A/B: $36
Full A/B/C: $52 $0.50 Pick-4 (2/6/1/8,9) Paid $62.87


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Ode to the Hunt 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #1 Scooby Dude 12-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Persuasive Devil 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Brother O'Connell 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Threes Are Wild 8-1 8th


7th: 1st Empire Distaff-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Who besides Carameaway is going to want to challenge Princess Violet? Do they go 1-2 all the way? Rosario and Sunny Desert is the intrigue..

Most Likely: #5 Princess Violet 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #3 Sunny Desert 5-1 8th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Carameaway 7-2 3rd/7th
Exotics Use: #6 Lady Gracenote 20-1 4th


8th: 39th Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Start of late P4 that has excellent potential and premium playability if you fully support Discreet Marq in the 9th. This is a good group of hard-hitters with authentic pace that should provide all with an honest chance. Defending winner Saratoga Snacks faces a more challenging set here than a year ago and his summer form appears to make him a vulnerable fave. Should be set for best but that may not be enough. Three year olds are a big part of this and emergent Sioux looms imposing with continued forward progress and if the 9th panel is to his liking. Fellow sophs So Lonesome, Effinex and Eye Luv Lulu have equal upside. Just no easy eliminations here..

Most Likely: #8 Sioux 5-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Effinex 15-1 WON ($37.20)
Next Best: #3 Saratoga Snacks 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Eye Luv Lulu 15-1 5th


9th: 34th Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Discreet Marq 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Strike Accord 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Invading Humor 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Effie Trinket 9-2 4th


10th: 37th Hudson-NY, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

As competitive as the Classic..

Most Likely: #7 Moonlight Song 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Best Value: #10 Captain Serious 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Big Business 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 West Hills Giant 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (7-5) Paid $35.75
$1 Trifecta (7-5-2) Paid $244.75
$1 Superfecta (7-5-2-10) Paid $1,462.00



11th: NY-MSW, 3+,

Best Value: #5 Manoffire 6-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Spider Roll 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Runaway Posse 4-1 WON ($7.90)
Super Add: #4 Spark to Ignite 5-1 8th


<$100 P4 Grid:

8: 3-5-8 (A), 4-6-7 (B), 1-2 (C)
9: 10 (A), - (B), 5-6-9 (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 2-4-5-6 (B), 6-9 (C)
11: 5-11 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-8 (C)

A/B $72; Full A/B/C: $100 $0.50 Pick-4 (5/4,10,13,14,15/7/3) Paid $431.00

 

 


GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY RESULTS

 

Keeneland


R6 - Alw 58k/N1X

#2 Ruedelarose (4-1) - arn firing on all cylinders. Nice debut.
#11 Eddy Gourmet (5-1) - Should be in the mix early with Paco aboard. 3RD
#6 Ducasa (7-2) - Freshened up and working well for top barn.
#5 Crissy Field (15-1) - Working well locally for 1st dirt try.

R7 - Alw 60k/N1X (Turf 5.5F)

#11 Kiama (7-5) - Clean break and she'll be tough to reel in. Role reversal for Leparoux.
#3 Ready for Summer (4-1) - J/T combo lethal and this runner is versatile.
#1 Bread and Butter (6-1) - Working well for return and has enough speed to clear from the rail draw.

R8 - OC 80k/N3X

#8 For Greater Glory (10-1) - Expecting him to uncork a serious late rally behind some honest fractions. 4TH
#1 Joy Boy (9-2) - Never easy to duplicate a career high, but Bridgmo looks to take it to them early again.
#3 Class Leader (15-1) - Looking for a sharp effort 2nd off and should save some ground early from an inside draw.
#7 Elnaawi (7-2) - This seems to be the preferred distance. WON $9.60

R9 - G2 Raven Run

#4 Pirate's Trove (8-1) - Lightly raced filly has displayed some serious talent on the all weather surfaces and check out that dirt bullet on 10/7.
#6 Divided Attention (6-1) - It seems she'll be taken back early and make a late run.
#10 La Madrina (8-1) - Has progressed nicely for conservative barn and the time is right to tackle graded company.
#11 Miss Behaviour (7-2) - She's proven quality at a variety of different tracks and should run her race again.

R10 - MSW 56k (Turf 8.5F)

#12 Dylan Ward (9-2) BEST BET - Ran behind some nice turfers at Gulfstream last winter and should be more involved early off the bench with Paco. 4TH
#3 Taghleeb (3-1) - Might leave himself too much to do late after an ideal set up in most recent. WON $6.20
#1 Awesome Sky (5-1) - Nice try off layoff despite not holding on late in slow race. 2ND

PK5 - 2 5 6 11 / 11 / 1 3 7 8 / 4 6 / 3 12 = $48 for $.50

PK4 - 1 3 11 / 1 3 7 8 / 4 6 10 11 / 3 12 = $48 for $.50



Santa Anita POST SCRATCHES


R6 - MSW 56k (Turf 2yo f 8F)

#1 Backstreet Lisa (8-1) WON $21.60
#3 Vow Me Over (3-1) 3RD
#2 Flat Footed Mama (5-1) 4TH
#9 Hankypank Girl (8-1)

R7 - MSW 56k (2yo 7F)

#9 Fame and Power (4-1) 4TH
#10 Cyrus Alexander (5-2) 3RD
#4 Financial (12-1)
#6 Kantune (4-1) 2ND

R8 - CB OC 20k/C (Turf 8F)

#4 Chilada (4-1) WON $8.80
#5 Tangelo (7-2) 3RD
#8 Winninginfashion (10-1) 2ND
#9 Sweet Boss (8-1)

R9 - CB Md 50k (2yo 5.5F)

#7 Sindys Luck (4-1) 3RD
#11 Sonic Fever (4-1)
#3 Tiz All That (15-1)
#8 Roper (3-1)

PK4 - 1 2 3 4 9 / 9 10 / 1 3 4 5 8 9 11 / 7 11 = $70 for $.50

 

 

 


RESULTS 10/10


You've heard me talk about Andy Harrington/National Turf many times, but I'm going to do another plug here. Friday's Santa Anita nightcap was a rag tag MDN CLM affair with an obvious favorite in Freakin Amazing and little other clear contenders. It was a spot that cried out for a price inclusion and reaching for a hint or two from Harrington's workout notes was vital. Eddie Freeman's Native Heart was making a 2nd start, an area the trainer excels, and his 10/1 drill produced this Harrington comment: May be better than debut going the last 1/4 in 24.3 under some late wraps. Rounding forward. -- Grade: B-.

Freeman's strong 21% 2nd/start and that encouraging Harrington blurb was all you really need when looking for an offbeat option. Native Heart proceeded to run a courageous race at 55-1, only yielding in the last few jumps to the highly likely favorite. The exacta paid $150 and the tri $1,136 with the 2nd choice running third. National Turf costs $10 for Harrington's view of 80% of a card's workouts and you can't play Southern California seriously without it.

Hope everyone did well Friday. Big multi-day carryovers at Belmont and Santa Anita today, but I'm on the road for a wedding and only have Keeneland ideas today..


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: ALW/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Stays on turf being called 'soft'.. Bitty Kitty!

Most Likely: ##11 Keening 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Liz Pendens 10-1 6th
Next Best: #13 Modernstone 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Bitty Kitty 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #8 Fine Assay 15-1 12th


7th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Sarah Sis 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #6 Know It All Anna 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Nagzilla 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Rachel's Ready 12-1 9th


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Divine Beauty 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Devious d'Oro 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Street Girl 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Brown Eyed Mary 7-2 6th


9th: 31st Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Ball Dancing 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sistas Stroll 12-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #2 Minorette 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Crown Queen 4-1 WON ($7.20)


10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Holiday Twist 3-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Tiz Sexy Now 8-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Silverpocketsfull 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Get Set Go 12-1 5th


P5 Grid:

6: 4-11 (A), 6-13 (B), 3-8-12 (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 8 (B), 4-7 (C)
8: 7 (A), 8 (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-2 (B), 8 (C)
10: 4 (A), 11-12 (B), 2-7-10 (C)


P4 Grid:

7: 1-6-8 (A), 7 (B), 4 (C)
8: 7 (A), 8 (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-2 (B), 8 (C)
10: 4 (A), 11-12 (B), 2-7-10 (C)

 

 

GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY ACTION

 

Keeneland


R6 - Alw 62k/N3X (Turf 8.5F)

#2 High Jinks (Brz) (15-1) - Top connections seem fit to step her up after recent claim.
#9 Stoptalkingmaria (12-1) - Willing to excuse her last and bobble head hops aboard. Should take advantage of her early speed.
#6 Bitty Kitty (4-1) - Finally figured it out and must be included.
#13 Modernstone (GB) (5-1) - Freshened up and takes a slight drop.

R7 - Alw 58k/N2L (2yo f 6.5F)

#5 Lovely Maria (6-1) - Barn excellent with youngsters and it's not easy to win from the rail in debut. Check out the sharp local work on 10/6.
#1 Sarah Sis (4-1) - Thrown right into graded company off impressive debut and she finished 2nd in G2 Arlington Lassie versus a nice field.
#2 Bossy (4-1) - Working lights out and the Cat Man is overdue to get rolling.
#7 Rachel's Ready (12-1) - Barn knows when to add the hood and will appreciate the class relief.

R8 - OC 62k/N2X

#5 Street Girl (8-5) - Expecting a big performance off the freshening and cutting back to 7 furlongs. Draws well for her stalking style.
#7 Divine Beauty (2-1) - Nice to see her back and works indicate she's ready off the bench.
#8 Devious d'Oro (15-1) - Dirt is the preferred surface and adds nice value underneath here.
#6 Brown Eyed Mary (7-2) - Consistent sort looks to run another decent race, but I don't see her in the same caliber of the top two choices.

R9 - G1 QE II Cup (Turf 9F)

#1 Sistas Stroll (12-1) - Pucker Up winners have had success in this race and she draws well in a wide open edition of this race.
#6 Ball Dancing (9-2) - Took care of business in U.S. debut and no reason to think she can't take another step forward.
#8 Crown Queen (4-1) - Has really been a different animal this year and fits well here.
#7 Sea Queen (5-1) - Expect her forwardly placed throughout and she'll give a game effort.

R10 - MSW 56k (2yo f 6.5F)

#4 Holiday Twist (3-1) - One of my favorite angles in play here. Showed speed in debut (to winner $8 Nagzills in Race 7 today) for a filly that is bred to go long.
#6 Wasatch (6-1) - Well bred filly could come out running for sharp barn. Check out toteboard for any clues.
#1 Live Forever (5-1) - Another 1st time starter that could be any kind. Again toteboard might give you any indications about chances.
#9 I Zoom (8-1) - Strong finish versus full field and adds Lasix today.

PK5 - 2 5 6 9 11 13 / 1 2 5 7 8 / 5 / 1 2 6 7 8 / 4 = $75 for $.40

PK4 - 1 2 4 6 7 8 / 5 7 / 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 / 4 = $42 for $.50



Hawthorne - Spot Play


R8 - #5 Gold Former (12-1) - Probably didn't care for the soft going in most recent at Arlington Park. The 7yr old gelding had decent efforts on firm going last winter at Gulfstream Park while facing much better competition. Betting at anything over 7-1.


BEL/SA Double

BEL R10 - Md 40k (Turf 6F) - #2 Byron's Pop (8-1), #1 Jimmy Fillpot (2-1), #10 Political Farce (6-1)

SA R5 - MSW 56k - #4 Alfa Bird (5-2)

BEL/SA Double - $10 DD - 1 2 10 / 4


Santa Anita


R7 - Md 40k

#9 Barbs Angel (9-2)
#8 Denotation (4-1)
#4 Spectacular Proof (3-1)
#2 Wild Caroline (7-2)

R8 - OC 40k/N1X

#1 Got Even (6-1)
#5 Toledo Eddie (4-1)
#3 Rusty Road (6-1)
#7 Conscience (9-2)

R9 - CB California Distaff Handicap (Turf 6.5F)

#9 Tribal Spy (7-2)
#11 Velvet Mesquite (9-2)
#7 Ciao Bella Luna (6-1)
#6 Heat Trap (6-1)

R10 - Md 30k

#4 Yes She's a Dancer (7-2)
#5 Honey in Paradise (12-1)
#11 Forest Trees (4-1)
#10 Classy Schiller (9-2)

PK4 - 2 4 8 9 / 1 3 5 7 9 / 9 11 / 4 5 11 = $60 for $.50

Good Racing Luck

 

 

 

 


SANTA ANITA RESULTS 10/10



POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Willing to Travel 3-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #1 Battle of Evermore 5-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #7 Metaboss 8-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Stormy Liberal 15-1 (C) WON ($38.80)


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Fascinating 6-5 (A) 4th
Best Value: #2 Interject 6-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #3 Live for Now 5-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Art of War 12-1 (C) 6th
Super Add: #8 Kirov 5-2 (C) WON ($14.60)


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Fantastic Mizz 5-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #5 Cravin' the Heat 12-1 (B) 7th
Next Best: #4 Doctor Glynis 8-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sunset Skies 9-2 (C) 5th


6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tim's Go Girl 7-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #8 Jetbird 15-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #6 Small Moves 4-1 (B) WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Adriatic Style 8-1 (C) 4th
Super Add: #5 Nueva Fortuna 4-1 (C) 6th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ethnic Dance 3-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #7 Kulik Lodge 5-2 (A) WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Te Rapa 4-1 (B) 5th
Super Add: #3 Mega Heat 4-1 (C) 4th


8th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Freakin Amazing 3-1 (A) WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #4 Native Heart 20-1 (B) 2nd
Next Best: #10 Seek Safe Harbor 4-1 (C) 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Scatchmeifyoucan 7-2 (C) 8th
Super Add: #5 Honey Nugget 12-1 (C) 6th


 

 

 

GUS ALONSO'S FRIDAY ACTION 

 

Keeneland


R6 - Alw 58k/N2L (2yo 6.5F)

#3 Indygo Bo (7-2)
#7 Conquest Bigluck E (3-1)
#6 Silver Ride (6-1)
#2 Great Rezults (7-2)

R7 - Alw 62k/N3X (Turf 9F)

#11 Marine Patrol (6-1) - 3rd start off the bench is the key.
#3 Dorsett (5-1) - Will appreciate the class relief.
#5 Power Ped (4-1) - Patient ride from Leparoux at preferred distance.
#4 Super Soldier (6-1) - Could get brave on the front end.

R8 - MSW 56k (2yo 6.5F)

#2 Risk Parity (4-1) - Speedster looks to take to it to them early.
#8 A. Rod Again (8-1) - Sharp debut barn and attracts Rosario.
#10 Bottom Line (12-1) - Decent debut and the extra 1.5F will help.
#7 Waging War (3-1) - Freshened and is working lights out.

R9 - Buffalo Trace Franklin County 100k (Turf 5.5F)

#2 Ageless (4-1) - Turf sprint specialist looms large as an off the pace threat.
#5 Richies Sweetheart (10-1) - Could be the speed of the speed.
#9 Quality Lass (6-1) - Travels well and will be gunning it early.
#12 Free as a Bird (4-1) - Has been mowing them down at this level.
#7 Quay (20-1) - Plenty of speed lined up for this grey to produce a serious late kick at a juicy price.

R10 - Clm 10k

#1 Muazzaz (6-1)
#2 Ghostwalking (6-1)
#12 Holiday Weave (5-1)
#10 Miraculousmo (4-1)

PK5 - 3 7 / 3 4 5 11 / 2 7 8 10 / 2 / 1 2 = $32 for $.50

PK4 - 3 4 5 7 10 11 / 2 7 8 9 10 / 2 / 1 2 = $30 for $.50



Belmont / Santa Anita - Double


BEL R9 - NYB MSW 60k (Turf 8.5F)

#6 Smilingsundae (12-1)
#11 Courageisamajority (4-1)
#1 Congress Park (5-2)
#5 Janny Love (8-1)

SA R4 - MSW 56k

#8 Kirov (5-2) - Hard to go against a hot barn. Barn took the early Double yesterday.
#7 Firefly (7-2) - Expecting improvement in 2nd start.
#1 Fascinating (6-5) - Last seen over a year and training well for return.
#3 Live for Now (5-1) - Has been knocking on the door.

DD - $5 DD - 6 11 / 7 8 = $20

DD - $2 DD - 1 6 11 / 1 7 8 = $18


Good Racing Luck


 


 


KEENELAND RESULTS 10/8


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 My Pal Paul 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Is Silver Good 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Party Time 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Soldier Inthe Rain 8-1 WON ($19.40)


6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Note #13 Watchyourownbobber (4-1) DOES get in.. #2 Courtier a half to Emollient; #5 Sports Book by Md'O out of MGSW Padua mare Bohemian Lady; #8 Czar a half to Cerro; #10 My Curby a McPeek production (as discussed on ATR today) being by Curlin out of MGSW My Baby Baby..

Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #1 Cold Spice 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 My Curby 6-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Sports Book 10-1 12th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

With Joy Boy out, ascendant Magical Moment (8-1) could wire this..

Best Value: #4 Magical Moment 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Catholic Cowboy 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Donoharm 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Viva Majorca 5-2 3rd


8th: 24th Jessamine (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Quality Rocks 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Late Spring 15-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Rainha Da Bateria 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Fila Primera 4-1 3rd


9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Une Cherise 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tap Twenty One 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Enchanting Lisa 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Temper 10-1 -
Hi-5 Play: #9 Playful Love 10-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

5: 1-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 2-3 (C)
6: 1-6 (A), 5-10 (B), 2-8-13 (C)
7: 4 (A), 9-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 4 (A), 5-9 (B), 3-8 (C)
9: 4 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A/B's): 4x4x3x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C's): $57


P4 Grid:

6: 1-5-6 (A), 2-8-10 (B), 3-13 (C)
7: 4 (A), 9-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 4 (A), 3-5-9 (B), 8 (C)
9: 4 (A), 3 (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A/B's): 6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C's): $44.50

 

 

 

GUS ALONSO'S WEDNESDAY ACTION 

 

Keeneland


R6 - MSW 56k (Turf 2yo 8F)

#6 My Curby (6-1)
#8 Czar (7-2)
#5 Sports Book (10-1)
#1 Cold Spice (POE) (9-2)

R7 - OC 62k/N2X

#9 Catholic Cowboy (5-1)
#10 Donoharm (7-2)
#6 Announcement (10-1)
#2 Viva Majorca (5-2)

R8 - G3 Jessmine (Turf 2yo f 8.5F)

#5 Late Spring (15-1)
#4 Quality Rocks (7-2)
#3 Fila Primera (4-1)
#8 Walking the Kitten (9-2)

R9 - Alw 58k/N1X

#5 Enchanting Lisa (4-1)
#9 Playful Love (10-1)
#6 Annuity (20-1)
#4 Une Cherise (5-2)

PK4 - 1 5 6 8 / 9 10 / 3 4 5 6 8 9 / 5 9 = $48 for $.50


Hawthorne $8k PK4 Carryover


R6 - Clm 25k (Turf 5F)

#4 Remembermealways (2-1)
#5 She's Coal Fired (6-1)
#7 Distant Mesa (5-1)
#6 Perfect Step (9-2)

R7 - Clm 5k N2L

#5 Miss Fire (6-1)
#9 Inner Pride (15-1)
#10 Silent Rap (8-1)
#2 La Enfremera Roja (6-1)

R8 - Clm 8k (Turf 8.5F)

#1 Seven Tuff (10-1)
#4 Piratesinparadise (6-1)
#6 Real Power (6-1)
#5 Ultimate X. (20-1)

R9 - Clm 4k B

#2 Yona Tory (12-1)
#9 August Day (9-2)
#5 Spurtability (20-1)
#10 Say Sonny (3-1)

PK4 - 4 / 2 5 9 10 / 1 3 4 5 6 / 2 5 9 10 = $40 for $.50

Good Racing Luck

 

 

 

 

RESULTS 10/4 

 

Wet weather only slightly dampened the enthusiastic reception for Keeneland Friday and a much more picturesque day expected for Saturday. Was humming along until the Alcibiades collapsed into a scrum for the late runners and imported Peace and War picked up the pieces at 23-1. Some early scores boosted the Lexington opener as Joan Scott's Best Value idea Ambidextrous Alex ($22.40) ended a $93 P3 and keyed the nice $224 triple over favorites Tapit Wicked and Exodus. Fun start to the newest incantation of Keeneland. Jope everyone did well. I'll stay with the venue today with a nicer afternoon expected there than in New York.


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

2nd division of juvy routers features slightly less experienced set than in Race 2. Nothing particularly clever to note though Vogner (Point Given), Calumet H/B half to Skyring, looks mildly appealing as price inclusion moving to main track off turf route debut..

Most Likely: #6 Frammento 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #2 Westbound 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Starbound 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Vogner 10-1 9th


5th: 18th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Always potential for chaos in quality lawn dash and this has real pace signed on to guarantee an honest running. Not adventurous tabbing co-2nd choice Marchman (7-2) here, but No Distinction (20-1) seems capable of juicing up the mutuels..

Most Likely: #10 Marchman 7-2 6th
Best Value: #3 No Distinction 20-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Spring to the Sky 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Positive Side 12-1 8th


6th: 34th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P5, All Stakes P4, P3)

Found this trickier than it should be and admit to not having a great feel for how it plays out. R Free Roll and Stonetastic obviously have races that win this easily. Southern Honey has a look setting up behind the speed. WO-based runners Leigh Court returns to dirt and Northern Passion sees a dry fast main for the first time..

Most Likely: #5 Stonetastic 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Southern Honey 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 R Free Roll 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 SCR


7th: 17th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Don't you feel as if you know all of these intimately? Don't discount Better Lucky's chance for a repeat here at a square price..

Best Value: #5 Better Lucky 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Dayatthespa 3-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Filimbi 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Somali Lemonade 9-2 5th


8th: 101st Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Didn't help get us to the winner or show runner, but discussed the potential for chaos in Friday's Alcibiades based on pace and stretchouts and collapse scenario unfolded on cue. This group didn't look as hot-blooded at first glance, but there are enough fast-early types and prompters to ensure this is run fairly. Top 4 ML faves all have established themselves (Carpe Diem, Bold Conquest, Conquest Tsunami, Hashtag Bourbon), but Ike Walker (8-1) looks like a live key from Stidham and the Thrashes showing steady improvement at Chicago and with a right to jump up first time dirt. The Bellamy Road colt sold for twice the average of his sire's yearlings, should appreciate the 2 turns and gets barn's go-to rider in Albarado who should set up shop towards the front of the second flight..

Best Value: #9 IKE WALKER 8-1 12th
Next Best: #6 Bold Conquest 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Carpe Diem 4-1 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #10 Hashtag Bourbon 4-1 7th


9th: 29th Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Always willing to believe Wise Dan is vulnerable, but confidence of typically austere LoPresti rather telling of expectations for champ on course he relishes. Sayaad, Grand Arch, Seek Again and Kaigun all pose authentic threat..

Most Likely: #6 Wise Dan 4-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #1 Sayaad 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Seek Again 7-2 -
Exotics Use: #3 Grand Arch 12-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Grid:

6: 5-6 (A), 3-4/SCR (B), 2-7 (C)
7: 1-5-7 (A), 8 (B), 6-9 (C)
8: 9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-7-10 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 6 - $6.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 6 - $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 8 with 9 with 6 - $1.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 5,6 with 6 - $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 1,8 - $6.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 8 with 9 with 6 - $1.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,5,7 with 5,6 with 6 - $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 1,8 - $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 8 with 5,6 with 6 - $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 8 with 9 with 1,8 - $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 5,6 with 1,8 - $12.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 6 - $3.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 6,9 with 9 with 6 - $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 1,7,10 with 6 - $9.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 1,5,7 with 9 with 3,4,5 - $9.00

Total: $74.00


10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Pletcher and Coolmore unveil $950,000 Malibu Moon filly Enchantress here and it will be surprising if she isn't ready at first asking. Notable as the as the highest priced filly and last hip to sell at Barrett's March Sale this year, she was selected by Pletcher himself who has an affinity for Malibu Moon female progeny (Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Malibu Prayer, et al)..

Most Likely: #7 Enchantress 3-1: See above; Expensive bay well-drilled for bow.. WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #4 Pattitude 6-1: Foley City Zip miss moves to main for 2nd start.. 4th
Best Value: #11 White Clover 8-1: Half to accomplished GSW Ermine.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Zeven 4-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Pinata Cat 10-1 7th


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-3-4/SCR-5-6-7
7: 1-5-7
8: 5-6-9-10
9: 1-6
10: 7

5x3x4x2x1 = 120 x .50 = $60 $0.50 Pick-5 (2/7/5/6/7) Paid $477.35

$0.50 Pick-5 (2/7/5/6/7) Paid $7.75 (4OF5) x 10 = $77.50



<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5-7 (A), 8 (B), 6-9 (C)
8: 9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-7-10 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-3-4-5 (C)
10: 7 (A), 4-11 (B), 2-9 (C)

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 6 with 7 - $3.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 6,9 with 6 with 7 - $1.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 5,10 with 6 with 7 - $3.00 $0.50 Pick-4 (7/5/6/7) Paid $83.35
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 1,8 with 7 - $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 6 with 4,11 - $6.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 5,10 with 6 with 7 - $1.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 6,9 with 1,8 with 7 - $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 6,9 with 6 with 4,11 - $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 5,10 with 1,8 with 7 - $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 5,10 with 6 with 4,11 - $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 1,8 with 4,11 - $12.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 6,9 with 6,9 with 6 with 7 - $2.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 1,12 with 6 with 7 - $3.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 2,3,4,5 with 7 - $12.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,7 with 6,9 with 6 with 2,9,12 - $9.00

Total: $74.00

 

 

 

GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY ACTION 

 

Keeneland


R6 - G2 TCA

#5 Stonetastic (2-1) - Completely different animal sprinting.
#4 Northern Passion (15-1) - Consistent sort tries dirt for the 1st time and check out the dirt work.
#3 R Free Roll (5-2) - Rolling now and might the quickest.
#7 Speedinthruthecity (5-1) - Rosie should benefit from all the pace and uncork a late rally.

R7 - G1 First Lady (Turf 8F) - Using #8 Stephanie's Kitten in PK4

#1 Filimbi (7-2) - Willing to draw a line through last dull effort.
#5 Better Lucky (5-1) - Defending champ must be respected in return to lawn.
#7 Dayatthespa (3-1) - Ultra consistent and has an affinity for this course.
#2 Kitten's Point (15-1) - Don't be surprised with a huge off the pace effort after freshening.

R8 - G1 Breeders' Futurity (2yo 8.5F) - Using #1 Tough Customer in PK4

#2 Firespike (12-1) - Was solid on the Turf and no reason he shouldn't take a step forward on the dirt.
#5 Carpe Diem (4-1) - Lived up to hype on debut, but must stretch out his speed here.
#10 Hashtag Bourbon (4-1) - All kinds of trouble in the G3 Iroquois and Leparoux fits his style.
#6 Bold Conquest (9-2) - Hung a bit in G3 Iroquois after having the lead late.

R9 - G2 Shadwell Turf Mile (Turf 8F)

#8 Seek Again (7-2) - Freshened up and primed to take champ down.
#6 Wise Dan (4-5) - Pure guts in latest win and will need a similar effort against a deep field.
#5 Kaigun (10-1) - Draws well and is in sharp form.
#1 Sayaad (12-1) - Will probably be in good position late. but must hold off some monsters.

R10 - MSW 56k (2yo 6F)

#7 Enchantress (3-1) - Well connected filly shows a nice string of works.
#3 Anita Partner (Ire) (12-1) - I like the longer works and Smith hops aboard for debut.
#9 Zeven (4-1) - Just has to translate the morning glory to the afternoon.
#12 Vandelita (6-1) - Barn successful in 2nd start and nice local spin for this.

PK5 - 3 4 5 / 1 5 7 / 2 5 / 6 8 / 3 7 9 12 = $72 for $.50

PK4 - 1 5 7 8 / 1 2 5 / 6 8 / 3 7 9 12 = $48 for $.50



Santa Anita


R7 - Swingtime 75k (Turf 8F)

#7 Kathleen Rose (5-2) - Controlling speed on her favorite course.
#3 Rhagori (GB) (8-1) - Talamo will probably make one big run at top choice.
#2 Heat Du Jour (9-2) - Capable of producing a winning move.
#5 Premier Steps (Ire) (5-1) - Preferred distance, freshened up, and blinks on could do the trick.

R8 - G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship

#1 Secret Circle (7-5) - Off the bench, no problem.
#3 Goldenscents (8-5) - I expect him to take to top choice and see you is best.
#4 Merit Man (8-1) - Off the pace tactics would be the best option.
#2 Rich Tapestry (Ire) (7-2) - Has made a bunch of cash, but the best sprinters are in the U.S..

R9 - G2 City of Hope Mile (Turf 8F)

#7 Schoolofhardrocks (8-1) - The mile fits, but needs a well timed ride from Garcia.
#3 Avanzare (6-1) - Versatile runner draws well.
#8 Grand Tito (5-1) - Barn confident enough to ship out west and Bejarano takes the call.
#2 Mr. Commons (4-1) - Always seems to break your heart, but hard to knock his consistency.

R10 - Clm 12.5k N2L

#1 Pressure Time (9-2) - The slight drop and a clean trip should do the trick.
#9 Fly High (12-1) - Last race at Santa Anita puts gelding right in the mix.
#14 Malibu Colony (6-1) - Expecting Garcia to be on the engine early and often.
#13 Pillar of Strength (8-1) - Thinking he faced slightly better in New York.

PK4 - 3 7 / 1 3 / 2 3 4 7 8 10 12 / 1 9 13 14 = $56 for $.50


Indiana Downs


R8 - Michael G. Schaefer Memorial 100k

#2 Fordubai (12-1) - Robby saves ground and gobbles them up late.
#8 Ground Transport (5-2) - Working well for return.
#6 Abarham (4-1) - Cut back should help chances.
#1 Leadem in Ken (9-2) - Consistent minor award at this level.

R9 - G2 Indiana Oaks

#2 Penwith (5-1) - Confidence booster in last and still has some upside.
#8 Tiz Windy (4-2) - Three straight wins on a dry track.
#10 Unbridled Forever (5-2) - Finally gets the class relief she needed.
#9 Miss Besilu (7-2) - Better on dirt and this distance fits her well.

R10 - G2 Indiana Derby

#3 Atreides (6-5) - Super impressive to start career, but must handle a different surface and two turns. I thinking he takes it to them and guts them out.
#8 Just Call Kenny (12-1) - Have a feeling Paco drops anchor and clunks up for a nice check.
#4 Vicar's in Trouble (2-1) - Only bad race was the Derby, but will really earn it here.
#5 East Hall (12-1) - Better draw tonight and should be running for a minor slice late.

PK3 - 2 6 8 / 2 8 9 10 / 3 = $6 for $.50 X 10 = $60


Good Racing Luck 

 

 

 

 

RESULTS 10/3

 

Fell tortuously short on C/O try at BEL Thursday as Vona photo loss in 7th doomed conso after 2nd/3rd efforts from Honor the Kitten and Charlie's Picnic in the 5th. Caught overlaid Schettino dropdown Bernstein Flambe ($32) to start the afternoon which did guarantee the day's returns. Bakken's return in the 8th went well (94 Beyer) and the Chad Brown charge should be ready for a major stakes try next. Hope everyone did well.

Keeneland back on the betting menu today and some wet weather adds to the intrigue already in the offing via Day 1 of the new 'high tech' dirt main. Two premium juvenile MSW's and ALW's, the G3 Phoenix sprint and G1 Alcibiades make the opener attractive despite the uncertainty of the fresh surface. Expecting surface to play fast based on early notations from trainers and track management..


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Nice looking group features 7 FTS anchored by Brereton Jones' Proud Spell son Etruscan (Bernardini). Jones sold Proud Spell's modest first drop ($175k Indian Spell to Besilu) and the second hasn't made the races, so the jury is out as to what kind of broodmare she's going to be. Colt certainly working well for Larry Jones and sure seems likely that this set of connections will be prepared for today's high profile setting..

Most Likely: #10 Joe Franklin 5-2: Breen 2nd timer the one to catch.. WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #2 Etruscan 4-1: See above; Bullet gate works add to appeal.. 5th
Best Value: #5 Pro Daddy 12-1: Plus price on B. Lynch half to speedy SW Graeme Six.. 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Danzig Moon 5-1: Oxley Malibu Moon blasting away in a.m. cross-state.. 4th


6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Nice enough group with classy turnback Bourbon Courage headlining, but a bit of a curiousity with no certain pacesetter. Rugged from the rail? Paco Lopez always hustles.. Is that the plan with Vegas No Show? Quirky start to the P5..

Most Likely: #2 Bourbon Courage 7-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #5 Politicallycorrect 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Officer Alex 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Vegas No Show 7-2 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

2nd division of maidens features 2nd horses from no less than 6 of the outfits that send runners in the 5th (Romans, Lynch, Casse, McPeek, Jones, Stewart)!

Most Likely: #8 Exodus 5-1: $600k Porter buy a half to Cross Traffic.. 3rd
Best Value: #10 Ambidextrous Alex 30-1: Scott sharp 2nd/out & adds Lasix.. WON ($22.40)
Next Best: #6 Cloverdale Nine 9-2: Ward FTS a half to zippy Whywhywhy.. 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Tapit Wicked 4-1: Lost to Wilkes' 30-1 shot. Feels iffy.. 2nd


8th: 162nd Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Authentic speed here and those that can attend without needing front seem preferable. Love regional stalwarts Rainbow Heir (NJ) and Work All Week (IL), but have doubts v. bigger stage open players...

Best Value: #1 C. Zee 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Bern Identity 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Work All Week 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #3 Lemon Drop Dream 8-1 4th


9th: 63rd Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Deep, seemingly talented field dotted with stretchouts and surface switchers inviting some chaos..

Most Likely: #5 Taylor S 8-1 10th
Best Value: #9 Top Decile 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Innovative Idea 10-1 11th
Exotics Use: #1 Fashion Alert 4-1 6th
Super Add: #13 Gap Year 8-1 7th


10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Miracle Run 4-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Kimberly Jean 5-1 -
Best Value: #1 Circus Girl 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Treaty Oak 7-2 -
Super Add: #6 SCR


P5 Grid:

6: 2 (A), 5 (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 8 (A), 4-6-10 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
8: 1 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
9: 5-9 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-11-13 (C)
10: 13 (A), 12 (B), 1-6-7 (C)


P4 Grid:

7: 8 (A), 4-6-10 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
8: 1 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
9: 5-9 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-11-13 (C)
10: 13 (A), 1-12 (B), 6-7 (C)

 

 

 

GUS ALONSO'S FRIDAY ACTION 

 

Keeneland - Opening Day - Keep an eye out on how much rain falls and the track condition. It seems we are going to find out early how the new dirt track drains. POST SCRATCHES


R6 - OC 80k/N3X

#2 Bourbon Courage (7-5)
#6 Turncoat (10-1)
#5 Politicallycorrect (7-2)
#4 Officer Alex (5-1)

R7 - MSW 56k (2yo 6F)

#4 Tapit Wicked (4-1)
#6 Cloverdale Nine (9-2)
#3 Hoarder (6-1)

R8 - G3 Phoenix

#2 Bern Identity (4-1) - Has found his niche and doesn't mind a little moisture.
#8 Work All Week (7-2) - Win machine faces biggest challenge to date.
#4 Rainbow Heir (3-1) - Super fast, but takes on much better here.

R9 - G1 Alcibiades

#7 Innovative Idea (10-1) - Handled a couple of runners in debut that have come back to run decent races. Draws well.
#9 Top Decile (9-2) - Exits strong maiden race and should be tough on the front end.
#11 Peace and War (15-1) - Decent work over the surface and is definitely a wildcard here.

R10 - Alw 58k/N1X (Turf 9F)

#6 Fawaarek (8-1)
#1 Circus Girl (12-1

PK5 - 2 / 4 6 / 2 / 1 5 6 7 9 11 13 / 1 6 12 13 = $28 for $.50

PK4 - 3 4 6 8 / 2 / 1 5 6 7 9 11 13 / 1 6 12 13 = $56 for $.50



Gulfstream Park


R7 - Md 30k (Turf 8F)

#1 Beep Beep Birdie (12-1) - Should offer great value as she drops from MSW and adds the hood. She also fits on numbers.

Hawthorne


R5 - Clm 16k (Turf 8.5F) - Hoping this race stays on the Turf after morning rain.

#7 Bambazonki (6-1) - Returns to Chicago and has some back races that will handle this field.

Good Racing Luck 

 


 


 



BELMONT PARK RESULTS 10/2


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$27k C/O starts here..

Tricky start to P6..

Best Value: #6 Bernstein Flambe 10-1 WON ($32.40)
Next Best: #7 Little G 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Zenstone 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Midnight Champagne 20-1 6th


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Kitten & Picnic the 'class' but will have to rally to get to Awake & Joking..

Most Likely: #2 Honor the Kitten 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Charlie's Picnic 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 I'm Wide Awake 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Joking 4-1 5th


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

After Kerjillion, have to do some pedigree and trainer guesswork..

Most Likely: #2 Kerjillion 5-2 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #9 Doctor Red 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Fulmer 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #15 Scooby Dude 6-1 5th


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Vona 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Three for Me 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Sunlover 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Bajan Summer 8-1 3rd


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Bakken 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1a Dream Saturday 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Captain Serious 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Geaux Mets 12-1 6th


9th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m-T

Best Value: #8 Mythical Man 8-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Media Kid 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Mop Head 5-1 6th
Super Add: #13 Best Play 20-1 9th


P6 Grid:

4: 6-7 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-5-12 (C)
5: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
6: 2 (A), 5-9 (B), 11-15 (C)
7: 4 (A), 6 (B), 1-3-8-9 (C)
8: 7 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 8 (A), 10 (B), 2 (C)

Simple A&B's: 3x2x3x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144
Full A/B/C's: $196


P4 Grid:

6: 2-9 (A), 5-15 (B), 6-8-11 (C)
7: 4-6 (A), 1-8 (B), 3-9 (C)
8: 7 (A), 1-5 (B), 3-4-6 (C)
9: 8-10 (A), 2 (B), 6-11-13 (C)

Simple A&B's: 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full A/B/C's: $78

 

 

 

 

BELMONT PARK RESULTS 9/27


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Deep group of pricey babies. Don't need to embellish merits of favored Albertrani/McLaughlin and Pletcher/Guillot entries, but note 12-1 Midhmaar (Tapit) a $600k Shadwell buy out of Fawkes MGSW middle distance sprint machine Take D' Tour. King Rontos keeps running into monsters. Easy Comparison was game in defeat in second start/first dirt try at SAR. Dannie's Deceiver is by Quality Road who is establishing himself quickly as a top 'first out' sire. Cannizzo lures Rosario and popped with 31-1 FTS in '13 that boosts his ROI..

Most Likely: #2e Godolphin-Darley ownership entry 4-1 2nd/6th
Best Value: #7 Midhmaar 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Southern Equine ownership entry 3-1 WON ($13.20)/9th
Exotics Use: #5 Dannie's Deceiver 15-1 7th


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Noble Cornerstone 3-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #8 Round 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Inmyfathersimage 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Chapman 5-1 2nd


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Congrats to Ken 7-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Dispersion 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Gustnado 4-1 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Epsilon 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 St. Louie 15-1 8th


4th: 34th Kelso (G2), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

With the stakes starting here, good spot to take note that with the Thursday rain, there's a chance the main track remains very tight. Friday saw a steady parade of on/near lead winners including 12-1 Roman Approval. It's going to be a sunny, warm day, so there's the opportunity for the track to be ideally groomed, but anything that favors speed can impact this event and and the Vosburgh particularly. Should River Rocks and Bradester fail to engage each other, either can wire..

Most Likely: #7 Itsmyluckyday 4-5 3rd
Next Best:#4 River Rocks 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Scarly Charly 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Bradester 3-1 7th


5th: 76th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Rosario seems ideally suited for 50 Shades. Sky Beauty win by Toasting lifts an eyebrow for big opportunity here at square price. Understand betting against underlay Stopchargingmaria but she is perfect at the trip, albeit around 2 turn versions of 9f. Stanwyck's typical effort gains share..

Most Likely: #5 Fiftyshadesofhay 9-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Toasting 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Stopchargingmaria 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Stanwyck 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Belle Gallantey 7-2 WON ($11.40)


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Perfect spot to take a shot in a contentious affair that comes ahead of the all stakes P4. Ragtime is out of modest Phipps product Castanet (El Prado), a sister of top turf performer Dancing Forever (Rahy). Shug tried to get the Henny Hughes son on turf earlier this summer and at 20-1, trust that there's method to the Hall of Famer's madness..

Best Value: #6 RAGTIME 20-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Upgrade 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Great Attack 7-2 WON ($15.20)
Super Add: #7 Cajun Breeze 20-1 4th


7th: 37th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro, this is a mix-and-match group that have been largely in and out through the summer. Chad Brown's troika a good place to start with Stephanie's Kitten, Whatsdachances and maddening Alterite all demanding attention/inclusion. Ballston Spa exacta (Abaco/Strathnaver) figure prominently. Pace appears slightly tepid which puts this completely in the hands of the silkwearers..

Best Value: #6 Whatsdachances 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Abaco 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Stephanie's Kitten 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #7 Alterite 8-1 7th


8th: 75th Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Yikes.. Layers of speed signed on for this standard and note the three quarters trip with 7 of the 9 dropping back or stretching out. Palace and Salutos Amigos sit behind the speeds and get first run. Happy My Way being cleverly engineered by MTH-based Orseno with eye towards Santa Anita and visiting :58.2 bullet over the surface shouldn't go unnoticed..

Most Likely: #6 Happy My Way 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Salutos Amigos 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Palace 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Private Zone 7-2 WON ($13.80)


9th: 38th Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Very similar to the Flower Bowl with a set of familiar lawn boys and a calm pace scenario. Spin the wheel..

Most Likely: #3 Imagining 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Main Sequence 2-1 WON ($5.90)
Best Value: #4 Hangover Kid 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Twilight Eclipse 4-1 2nd


10th: 96th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)

As fun a JCGC as you'll see these days. The big Eastern 3yo's are here as well as the hard-knocking handicap veterans. Tonalist takes off the hood and relaxes behind the pace battle between Moreno and Big Cazanova..

Most Likely: #8 Tonalist 4-1 WON ($8.10)
Best Value: #1 Micromanage 20-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Wicked Strong 3-1 DNF-Lost rider
Exotics Use: #9 Stephanoatsee 20-1 4th


11th: OC/N1X, 3+, 12f-T

Deliberate John Toscano not only adds Lasix to Smokey Brown, but reaches for Jose Ortiz with whom he's amassed a gaudy J-T record (6/13 at BEL for $5.65; 7/28 overall '13-14 for $2.80)..

Most Likely: #4 Grand Rapport 7-2 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #11 Smokey Brown 20-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Capitan Futuro 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Innovation Economy 10-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Sandy in the Sun 20-1 12th



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Quite a group of pedigrees on view here including Punctuate (Distorted Humor), 1st Peppers Pride foal to hit the track (first born full brother Funny Pepper yet to run) and Fueled by Bourbon (Stroll), half brother of Clearly Now..

Most Likely: #11 Madiba 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Smuggler Union 6-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Bronze Star 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Kantune 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Fame and Power 3-1 6th


5th: 3rd Zenyatta (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Beholder 1-2 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #1 Tiz Midnight 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Iotapa 2-1 3rd


6th: 3rd FrontRunner (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Before settling on a pecking order, note that Skyway is the ONLY horse in the field that has run on dirt (Bashford Manor). No telling whom exactly leaps forward on the new SA main but Daddy D T (6-1) deserves look off big works post stakes win..

Most Likely: #7 American Pharoah 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #4 Daddy D T 6-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Sky Preacher 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Calculator 8-1 2nd


7th: 3rd Rodeo Drive (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Ridiculous group with at least 8 of the 14 looking capable of the 'W'..

Best Value: #8 Parranda 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Irish Mission 6-1 3rd-DH
Exotics Use: #7 Emollient 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #11 Stormy Lucy Late-Gate SCR


8th: 3rd Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Baffert looking to probe depth of undefeated Shared Belief with Fed Biz who will seriously test the 3-5 favorite..

Most Likely: #4 Shared Belief 3-5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #1 Fed Biz 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Majestic Harbor 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Imperative 6-1 5th


9th: 3rd Unzip Me, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Gender Agenda 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Kool Kat 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 On the Backstreets 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Alexis Tangier 5-2 WON ($14.20)


10th: 3rd Chandelier (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Conquest Eclipse 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Danette 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Angela Renee 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Dad's Princess 8-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Sunday Sonnet 6-1 5th


11th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Papacoolpapacool 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #2 Nakamoto 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Kenji's Thunder 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Dream It Do It 6-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Increase 12-1 5th

 

 


 

 

 

RESULTS 12/31 

Bit of a maddening beat at Aqueduct Sunday when live to 2 horses for a P6 conso and 4 runners for sizeable P4's thanks to the multi ticket approach. Though AE-draw in Silver Day (7-1) got by 6-1 Money in Motion and 37-1 Classic R&B to quash the P4 opportunity, the fact was driven home that the more elaborate ticket structuring puts you in best position for scores. A win by Classic R&B specifically was worth $3,619. If unaware, DRF Ticketmaker makes it simple to build your multi plays: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker

The sequence was stood on its' ear early when implausible Go West Marie ($25) won the first leg and widespread single A.P. Cino failed in the second. A.P. Cino's loss is another example of how the multi ticket approach keeps you in the hunt longer and more often as Photon was on 20% of the plays and helped get the investment in position for at least a conso. Despite the P4/P6 misses, the day was bouyed along by Modern Child who was nicely piloted by Rajiv Maragh for a $38 tote bump.

Only one horse was live for the P6 in the nightcap and the Chatterpaul winner wasn't it, so a must-pay P6 opportunity results on this New Year's Eve card. There's also a similar forced distribution at Laurel in their P5. Hope everyone has had a good 2013 and enjoyed the excellent year of racing to which we were treated. From a balance sheet perspective, I lost several thousand this year but take solace in the fact that the Del Mar P6 DQ out of $23k+ turns this recap into a gloatfest. As Damon Runyon said, 'all horseplayers die broke', but as long as you're north of the loam, you're live in the next race...

Best of luck to everyone today and warm wishes for a 2014 filled with health, happiness, love and good fortune.

Steve




AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$94k Must Pay P6 C/O starts here..

Not 100% convinced that favored Sun and Moon (2-1) is reliable and if it's not her or returning Sustainable (5-2), this race could get messy fast. Aqua Regia gets first Lasix after losing any chance at start of debut. Tizarocket showed more speed in last and subsequently fired 3 straight bullets on 5 day intervals..

Most Likely: #2 Sun and Moon 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Sustainable 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #7 Aqua Regia 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Tizarocket 6-1 4th


5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Unless a short rest regression saps Moments Notiz, he appears tough to beat (A). Consistent inner track performer Frazil, Linda Rice's other player Quick Money and Island Sunset SCR'D on the barn switch to Jacobson are contenders (B's). 10-1 Head Heart Hoof (Entered for 1/1/14) and 12-1 Exley merit a glance (C's)..

Most Likely: #11 Moments Notiz 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #7 Quick Money 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Frazil 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Head Heart Hoof 10-1 7th


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Forged (half to MSW sprinter Comedero) and American Creed exit the 12/7 MDN heat that produced Groupthink & Uncle Sigh in a photo. Uncle Sigh then smoked in second start last week. Frost Jordan moves inside after wide-ish trip debut. Mark Twain has a terrific worktab for 5/2-0-1 at meet Leo O'Brien and was sold for nearly 3x the average price for a Noonmark yearling. All Over Me is out of $174k earner Leawood who was better on grass but an OK main track sprinter. Slippery Cannizzo won first out with River Dancer and Sol the Dancer earlier this year..

Most Likely: #1 Frost Jordan 3-1 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #3 Forged 7-2 10th
Best Value: #8 Mark Twain 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 American Creed 4-1 5th


7th: NY-OC/N1X, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Sidearm, Geaux Mets SCR'D and Sandcat mixed it up to noses and necks 3 weeks ago and also crossed paths with impressive Samraat, (as did Eye Luv Lulu in his debut). Tricky element in this set is 5.5f distance, a configuration at which Double Gold, Sol the Freud and Sandcat all broke their maidens. Don't be put off by Eye Luv Lulu winning v. MCLM/$50k as that was open company and a good equivalent to NY-MSW's. Sing the Dream (20-1) may not be a win candidate, but could boost your tri or super. Very good race..

Best Value: #6 Eye Luv Lulu 7-2 WON ($16.00)
Next Best: #3 Sol the Freud 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Sandcat 4-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Sing the Dream 20-1 5th


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fortify 2-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Snake Pit 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Cease 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Hackleton 30-1 7th


9th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y

Most Likely: #5 Tycoon Cat 5-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #2 Petrocelli 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Star of New York 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Here Comes Tommy 7-2 8th


<$200 P6 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $124.00 (5OF6)

A's with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 5 - $8.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/3,5,6,8,11/1/6/9/5) Paid $124.00 (5OF6)
5 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 2 - $8.00

A's with Two B's

6 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
7 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 5 - $8.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 7 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 2 - $8.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 5 with 5 - $8.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 3 with 7 with 2 - $8.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 5 with 2 - $8.00

A's with One C

12 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 4 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 7,8 with 6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $16.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 3,9 with 5 - $16.00 $2 Pick 6 (5/11/1/6/9/5) Paid $11,354.00 (6OF6)
17 $2.00 pick P6: 2,5 with 11 with 1,3 with 6 with 7 with 7 - $8.00

Total: $152.00


<$100 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $8.00

A's with One B

2 $1.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $6.00
3 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $6.00
4 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 5 - $12.00 $1.50 Pick 4 (1/6/9/5) Paid $915.00
5 $1.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 7 - $6.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 7,8 with 7 with 5 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 5 - $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 7,8 with 3,6 with 7 with 7 - $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 5,9 with 5 - $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 7,8 with 7 with 7 - $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 5,9 with 7 - $4.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 10 with 3,6 with 7 with 5 - $1.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 1,4 with 7 with 5 - $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 3,10 with 5 - $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,3 with 3,6 with 7 with 2 - $2.00

Total: $65.00

 

 

 


RESULTS 12/29

Parade of $17-$25 winners at Aqueduct crushed my P4 interests and tripped a $33k carryover into Sunday. Central to the price players was Dominick Schettino, who last saddled a winner on October 27, but got firster Molly the Freud and previously mired Fee and Sugar across for diplomas.

Had all the mundane victors at Santa Anita but stupidly categorized Unbridled's Song as a 3rd choice "B" in the P4 structures which cost a breakeven return of the $1.50 main play. One nice result at Arcadia was 10-1 ML 'Best Value' idea Cherubim who crushed a good MSW group at nearly 21-1. Cherubim was interesting because of strong workout notes from Andy Harrington in his National Turf report:

SA 12/15: Would have called this a breeze under wraps while going the last 4f in 47.4. May like the dirt a lot more than now departed Cushion surface. -- Grade: B

SA 12/9: Much the best over Son Of Malibu looking to have nice looking power while under wraps, last 3f in 36.1. Sure looks better than debut. -- Grade: B

For $10, you should not play SoCal tracks without Harrington's insights. Hope everyone did well Saturday... This AQU sequence is completely impossible, but I've capped it and here are the thoughts.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$33k P6 C/O starts here..

Reasonable opening to skein with dropping faves Sals Wonderfulgirl and Believeinfaith standing out. There are lurkers though in the form of Julie Napp SCR'D (Schettino, dropping down & cutting back) and Lady Luciano (Cannizzo Frost Giant miss that improved in first try on the inner track). The fun horse here is Lauded (20-1) from Henning who sports the pentafecta of karma moves by dropping down, cutting back, going turf to dirt, adding blinkers and tabbing bug!

Most Likely: #8 Sals Wonderfulgirl 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Believeinfaith 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Lady Luciano 6-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Lauded 20-1 8th


5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f (F/S, P3, DD)

If Penn National invader A.P. Cino runs to his paper form, he appears dominant. Don't be put off by Kaylia Albright who is a 15% jock that won her 100th race of the year Saturday. She has banked close to $2,000,000 in 2013, her 2nd year in the irons..

Most Likely: #5 A. P. Cino 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sacred Ground 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Photon 5-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Metaurus 30-1 6th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 M P Ruckus 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #1a El Oh El 1-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #4 Stealth Steed 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Two More Jacs 15-1 7th


7th: NY-OC/C, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

One of the races that makes this a very difficult P6 to manage. Entire field is within a couple lengths of each other on typical form..

Most Likely: #6 Rebellious Chic 7-2 8th
Next Best: #2 Rodinia 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #1 SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Concealed 6-1 2nd


8th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Equally impossible group..

Most Likely: #6 Tiz Chris 9-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Modern Child 20-1 WON ($38.20)
Next Best: #2 Mighty Ian 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1e Jacobson entry 5-2 2nd/6th
Super Add: #9 Finn's Quest 7-2 3rd


9th: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y

Expect #1 Hailstone to SCR having run Friday.. Not that his coming out makes this any easier..

Most Likely: #5 Festive Spirit 9-2 9th
Next Best: #3 Mr. Espresso 8-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Classic R and B 30-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Money in Motion 6-1 4th


<$300 P6 Play:

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 - $8.00

A's with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 - $8.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 - $16.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 6 with 6 with 3,5 - $8.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 2,4 with 3,5 - $16.00
6 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 4,6 - $8.00

A's with Two B's

7 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 - $16.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 5 with 1,12 with 6 with 6 with 3,5 - $8.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 2,4 with 3,5 - $16.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 4 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 4,6 - $8.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 6 with 6 with 3,5 - $16.00
12 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 2 with 2,4 with 3,5 - $32.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 1,9 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 4,6 - $16.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 6 with 2,4 with 3,5 - $16.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 6 with 6 with 4,6 - $8.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 2,4 with 4,6 - $16.00

A's with One C

17 $2.00 pick P6: 1,7,9 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 3,5 - $24.00
18 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 1,4,5 with 6 with 3,5 - $24.00
19 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 1,9 with 3,5 - $16.00
20 $2.00 pick P6: 8 with 5 with 1,12 with 2 with 6 with 2,7 - $8.00

Total: $288.00


<$100 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 3,5 - $8.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 3,5 - $8.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 1,4 with 4,6 with 3,5 - $8.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 1,2 with 3,5 - $8.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 6 - $4.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,4 with 4,6 with 3,5 - $8.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 2,6 with 1,2 with 3,5 - $8.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 6 - $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 1,4 with 1,2 with 3,5 - $8.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 1,4 with 4,6 with 6 - $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 1,2 with 6 - $4.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 3,5 - $8.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 3,5,9 with 4,6 with 3,5 - $12.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 9 with 3,5 - $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 1,12 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 4 - $4.00

Total: $100.00

 

 

 

RESULTS 12/28

 

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 It's Easy 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Shades of Indigo 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Willow U 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Flying K C 3-1 6th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tenango 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Private Tale 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Hannibel Lechter 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Haverhill 6-1 6th


8th: 35th Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Comandante 6-1 WON ($5.10)
Next Best: #1 Awesome Vision 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Zetterholm 15-1 4th


9th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #6 Tiny Predicament 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Luxury Appeal 20-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Silent Thunder 3-1 8th
Exotics User: #2 Real Estate 15-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $6.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 6 with 6 ($12.00)

A's with One B

2 $3.00 P4: 2 with 1,2 with 6 with 6 ($6.00)
3 $3.00 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 6 with 6 ($6.00)
4 $3.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 1 with 6 ($6.00)
5 $3.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,5 ($12.00)

A's with Two B's

6 $1.00 P4: 2 with 5,6 with 6 with 6 ($2.00)
7 $1.00 P4: 2 with 1,2 with 1 with 6 ($2.00)
8 $1.00 P4: 2 with 1,2 with 6 with 1,5 ($4.00)
9 $1.00 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 1 with 6 ($2.00)
10 $1.00 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 6 with 1,5 ($4.00)
11 $1.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 1 with 1,5 ($4.00)

A's with One C

12 $1.00 P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 6 with 6 ($4.00)
13 $1.00 P4: 1 with 3,8,9 with 6 with 6 ($3.00)
14 $1.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 4 with 6 ($2.00)
15 $1.00 P4: 1 with 1,2 with 6 with 2,12 ($4.00)

Total: $73.00



SANTA ANITA PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: 19th Eddie Logan, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

This has the makings of a superb race with a lot of players owning real potential. Certainly is an encouraging cast when thinking about 3yo boys on the lawn in the coming year..

Most Likely: #3 Craftsman 2-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Enterprising 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Noble Metal 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Royal Banker 3-1 2nd


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3)

Quite an assembly here with Baffert sending babies out of Indian Blessing (Indian Smoke) and Xtra Heat (Pimpernel), Peter Miller unveiling a Street Cry half brother to Invasor (Garen) and Proctor sending firster Chelios, a Distorted Humor half brother of Old Time Hockey..

Most Likely: #8 Pimpernel 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Garen 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Cherubim 10-1 WON ($43.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Indian Smoke 3-1 6th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Texas Ryano may not be ready here today, but keep an eye on this Curlin colt that is out of highly productive Blending Element. Half to SW's Tiz a Blend, Tiz Elemental, Excessive Blend Holladay Road, et al..

Best Value: #2 Big Medicine Man 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Ontology 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Number Five 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 On Draft 10-1 6th

NOTE: Will add #4 Miraglo and #6 Kozani to back-up P4 plays..


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Seeking the Sherif 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #5 Tribal Smoke 4-1 DH-3rd
Next Best: #1 Mary Helen's Storm 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 On My Honor 6-1 6th


8th: 10th Daytona (G3), 3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Chips All In 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Ain't No Other 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Unbridled's Note 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Gallant Son 7-2 3rd


9th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Exotic Behavior 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #7 Red Barris 9-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Poppy Cloche 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Miraculous Mindy 6-1 12th-
Super/Hi-5: #10 She's Flush 6-1 3rd


<$100 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 2,8 with 7,11 ($24.00)

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,4 with 2,8 with 7,11 ($8.00)
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 4 with 7,11 ($4.00) $0.50 Pick 4 (1,5/8/3,4/11,13) Paid $30.30
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 2,8 with 5 ($4.00)

A's with Two B's

5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,4 with 4 with 7,11 ($4.00)
6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,4 with 2,8 with 5 ($4.00)
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 4 with 5 ($2.00)

A's with One C

8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6,8,9 with 5,8 with 2,8 with 7,11 ($16.00)
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 3,10 with 2,8 with 7,11 ($8.00)
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 6 with 7,11 ($4.00)
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 5,8 with 2,8 with 3,8,10,12 ($16.00)

Total: $94.00

 

  

 


BREEDERS' CUP -- SATURDAY NOVEMBER 2

 

Super highway main track proved irksome commodity for a while Friday as feared, but most seemed to adjust accordingly and at least know what to expect Saturday. Overall afternoon was enjoyable culminating with spectacular effort by Beholder in the Distaff. Earlier, both juvenile grass races saw big performances from Euro winners Chriselliam and Outstrip. Mutuel efforts were solid with a big hit to start the day in the opener and a nice flourish through the late P4 races. Hope everyone did well..


SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: 2nd Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

$891k P5 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #9 Toowindytohailrox 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Dothraki 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Love In The Desert 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Test Ride 5-1 7th


2nd: Damascus, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

If track is still souped up today, Anillo will be the one to catch. Flashback still likely to win, but under scenario we saw yesterday, this is the kind of spot where awareness of the possibility of a wire job by the speed of the speed means taking a chance by at least covering a horse like Anillo..

Best Value: #5 Anillo 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Flashback 2-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Zeewat 4-1 WIN ($12.00)


3rd: Sen. Ken Maddy (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Like Friday's terrific Twilight, a contentious group. Juddmonte made a very specific decision in bringing Ultrasonic SCR'D to U.S. to run down the hill. Minds Eyes and Unusual Hottie offer value and can be used on top. Both Proctor runners are eligible, but there's plenty of speed here so Procurement (6-1) earns the nod over Purim's Dancer (7-2)..

Best Value: #8 Minds Eyes 15-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Unusual Hottie 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #13 Pontchatrain 6-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #3 Winding Way 8-1 2nd


4th: 30th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Sweet Reason, already a caution after iffy appearances in the morning, appears further compromised by track conditions. Rooting for, but betting against. Hushion's peaking Frizette winner Artemis Agrotera meanwhile gets benefit of track and may be 2nd New York bred to win a Cup race 24 hours after London Bridge broke the ice for Empire State in the Marathon. Midwest fillies from McPeek and Asmussen look ideal as next likelys. Though West Coast gals Secret Compass and She's a Tiger (both 6-1) have gotten the most notice, diminutive Concave has made an impression on me every morning with her plucky spins and will provide tremendous value at 15-1 or more..

Most Likely: #1 Artemis Agrotera 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Rosalind 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Untapable 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Concave 15-1 9th


5th: 15th Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Important to know if Laughing is staying in this or not. High strung miss did not ship well -- which her team knew might be an issue -- and went off her feed. If they run, then she should be 100% fine as Goldberg/Santulli top horsemen that have reputations of always doing the right thing by their horses. There isn't any authentic speed to go with Laughing, so she presents the same wire threat in this that she has all summer..

Most Likely: #1 Dank 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #2 Romantica 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Tix Flirtacious 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Marketing Mix 7-2 5th


<$75 P5 Play:

1: 7-8-9
2: 1-5
3: 3-8-10-13
4: 1-2-7
5: 1-2

3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: 7th Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

First of the day's defending Cup winners here and after season-long travails, expect -- not just hope -- Groupie Doll goes out in style. Pace runners like Ismene and Starship offer great value as types that can survive front end while Sweet Lulu (and Summer Applause as well) have that turnback punch you look for at seven-eighths..

Most Likely: #11 Groupie Doll 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #6 Ismene 20-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Sweet Lulu 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Starship Truffles 15-1 12th


7th: 30th Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Typically fun downhill event and key numbers are :21.2 and :42.2 as anything south of those splits will elicit a collapse. Renee, Tightend and Spring/Sky look like they will provide solid zip, but there may not be quite enough pressure to guarantee that the closers get up like Desert Code in '08 or Mizdirection last year. Interesting thing about the defending winner is that she has been on the front end this year but appears capable of adjusting to whatever she encounters. Working insanely and may very well retain hill crown..

Most Likely: #9 Capo Bastone 8-1 13th
Next Best: #12 Mizdirection 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #2 Rock Me Baby 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Chips All In 5-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Spring to the Sky 30-1 11th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-2-7
5: 1-2-3-6
6: 3-4-6-8-11-12
7: 9-12

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


8th: 30th Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Draw placing Strong Mandate and Havana wide opened this race up, but note that Goldencents managed to make the outpost work OK Friday by getting the lead and letting the conveyor assist him late. Will respect the obvious on the outside, but have to lean on some playable prices inside..

Most Likely: #4 New Year's Day 8-1 WON ($23.00)
Next Best: #3 Mexikoma 12-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Smarty's Echo 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #14 Strong Mandate 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #13 Havana 5-2 2nd


9th: 30th Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Another race where draw heavily impacts decision-making with Real Solution hurt by extreme gate. The Fugue oozes class with these and the added distance versus last year's F&M Turf choice should help her. Indy Point poised for big effort. Point of Entry win would be remarkable accomplishment for Team Shug. Twilight Eclipse has knocked on doors all year and gets Leparoux which could be a good fit..

Most Likely: #7 The Fugue 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Indy Point 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Twilight Eclipse 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Point of Entry 4-1 4th


10th: 30th Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

I don't want to get maudlin, but have to say the sadness and unfairness of Points Offthebench being absent from these proceedings will make this a hard event to watch. Pace will be of the leatherneck variety and though one or another of the front-enders can be track-aided and stay on, stalkers and closers should be able to get involved..

Most Likely: #9 Secret Circle 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #12 Laugh Track 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Justin Phillip 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Gentleman's Bet 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Bahamian Squall 10-1 6th


11th: 30th Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Wise Dan wins. After that, there's no shortage of pricey inclusions with which to have fun..

Most Likely: #8 Wise Dan 1-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #2 Silentio 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 No Jet Lag 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Za Approval 15-1 2nd


12th: 30th Breeders' Cup Classic, 3+, 10f (Super Hi-5)

As I wrote in Xpressbet BC Wagering Guide, race seems to be calling for an alternate view with so many familiar players looking interchangeable. I'll key off the Coolmore invader who is classiest entrant and while not conformed perfectly for the main track, is certainly bred for it being out of Union Rags sister. Has cruising speed and staying style and as long as dirt in the face doesn't make him recoil early, has big chance at nice number. May not be Giant's Causeway, but he's no doorknob either. Ian Wilkes, who is an easy read, exuding confidence with defending winner Fort Larned. Flat Out looks better physically than he did earlier in the summer and gets services of Rosario back. Palace Malice is the best 3yo hope though Moreno has exceeded expectations the last two starts and may be the speed that's in space in the stretch..

Most Likely: #5 Declaration of War 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Fort Larned 6-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Flat Out 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Palace Malice 10-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #4 Moreno 15-1 10th


<$200 P6 Play:

7: 9-12
8: 1-3-4-13-14
9: 7-9
10: 9
11: 8
12: 5-7-12

2x5x2x1x1x3 = 60 x $2 = $120


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-7-8-9
10: 1-3-6-7-9-12
11: 8
12: 4-5-7-8-9-12

4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

 

 

 

 

BREEDERS' CUP -- FRIDAY NOVEMBER 1

 

 

Every year we arrive at this juncture and I feel compelled to trot out the Breeders' Cup invocation. Remember that whether you are successful or not, your ability as a horseplayer won't be defined over the course of 14 races. The Cup offers unique opportunities with chances to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking.

Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious and challenging puzzles they've become. No matter how well you 'handicap' the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be taking an 0-for going into Saturday's finale and get it all back and more in the 2:02.0 it takes to run Saturday's Classic.. Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here's hoping that everyone nets something that fills their account and makes them proud.

It's again been a pleasure trying to bring the flavor of the Cup to everyone listening, and I hope there was something offered that you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Santa Anita, ATR's sponsors and everyone who contributed so generously to the shows.. Best of luck this weekend!


SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


CAREFULLY MONITOR MAIN TRACK CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SPEED...


1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Pure Loyalty 8-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #11 U S Citizen 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Yankee Rebel 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Somethings Unusual 12-1 2nd


2nd: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Wild Dude 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Cat Burglar 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Got Even 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Drover Crazy 10-1 11th


3rd: Cal-Golden State Juvenile, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Life Is a Joy 9-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Tamarando 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 California Chrome 3-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Sir Barclay 15-1 8th


4th: Cal-Golden State Juvenile Fillies, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

This is a real curiosity with all but Harlington's Rose stretching out around two turns for the first time..

Best Value: #6 Harlington's Rose 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Cal Gal 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Moving Desert 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Stole a Kiss 7-2 5th


5th: 2nd Twilight Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Terrific assembly for this. Charming Kitten kept good company all summer and should sit a good ground-saving trip under Johnny V in this spot. Irish Surf beat elders to break MDN, continued to win and wasn't disgraced in the John Henry despite wide posting. Returns to straight sophomore company..

Most Likely: #2 Charming Kitten 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Irish Surf 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Kid Dreams 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Dry Summer 10-1 3rd


<$50 P5 Play:

1: 8-11
2: 9-13
3: 1-2-7
4: 2-6-8-9
5: 1-2

2x2x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: 6th Breeders' Cup Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD)

Race remains silly and superfluous to proceedings but that doesn't mean we don't want to bet on it. Gary Stevens gushed about lung capacity of Argentinean import Ever Rider and his morning circuits of SA oval remind you of last year's winner Calidoscopio. One earmark for success in this event has been class and Suns Out Guns Out (Empire Maker) and Worldly (A.P. Indy o/o Urbane) strike as types that will stay successfully..

Most Likely: #4 Ever Rider 7-2 DNF
Next Best: #8 Blueskiesnrainbows 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Suns Out Guns Out 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Worldly 6-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

3: 1-2-7
4: 2-6-8-9
5: 1-2-6-7
6: 4-8

3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


7th: 7th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Lines appear clearly drawn here with Bobby's Kitten the American standout with Giovanni Boldini and Outstrip the serious Euro challengers. After that trio, you can tinker with some super fillers like Got Shades that get Stevens and was raced last time without Lasix in anticipation of this assignment..

Most Likely: #5 Bobby's Kitten 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Outstrip 4-1 WON ($14.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Giovani Boldini 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Got Shades 30-1 5th


8th: 7th Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Wildly entertaining group and with ML faves Verrazanno (3-1) and Goldencents (4-1) drawing poorly, things more open than they might have been. This race has regularly produced unanticipated winners and Holy Lute (20-1) is a prime upset candidate having moved into contention range in first main track start when 3rd in Indiana Derby last time. Needs further improvement to best some grizzled veterans and fellow 3yo's, but gains services of Mike Smith after sneaking into starting grid..

Best Value: #8 Holy Lute 20-1 10th
Next Best: #12 Goldencents 4-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Brujo de Olieros 8-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Hymm Book 15-1 5th


9th: 7th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

Came here convinced that Chad Brown's Testa Rossi and Ready to Act were going to be most formidable and while not completely dissuaded, enthusiasm is tempered by challenging outside draws... Fellow contenders Sky Painter and My Conquistadory got it even worse. Euros have bubbled to the surface in here

Most Likely: #8 Chriselliam 6-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #2 Al Thakhira 6-1 14th
Exotics Use: #11 Testa Rossi 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Dancing House 20-1 5th
H-5 Play: #6 Vorda 4-1 7th


10th: 30th Breeders' Cup Distaff, F&M-3+, 9f (DIS-CLS Double)

As good as the reigning mare has been, believe the 3yo fillies carry the day..

Most Likely: #5 Beholder 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #3 Close Hatches 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Princess of Sylmar 9-5 6th


<$50 Distaff-Classic Double Play:

DIS: 3-5
CLS: 4-5-8-9-10

MAIN: 2x5 = 10 x $3 = $30


DIS: 2-4-6
CLS: 4-5-8-9-10

BACK-UP: 3x5 = $15


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5
8: 3-4-8-12
9: 2-6-8-9-11-12
10: 3-5

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (4-12-8-5) Paid $403.90

 




 
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